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Cowpland vows Corel will turn profit this year Cites surging cash level, new contract as signs of momentum TORONTO -- Michael Cowpland vows that Corel Corp. will return to the black this year, pointing to a surge in cash levels as proof that his struggling software company is coming back from 15 months of crippling losses. "I think we're on the rebound now," said Mr. Cowpland, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Ottawa-based Corel. After a speech to the Empire Club yesterday, Mr. Cowpland told reporters that Corel's cash levels have jumped to $30-million (U.S.) in the past 40 days from $18.9-million as of Feb. 28. Mr. Cowpland cited the increase in cash as evidence that Corel is moving toward making a profit in its current fiscal year, which ends Nov. 30. He said a $495,000 contract, announced yesterday, to supply software to Ontario elementary and secondary schools is further proof of Corel's momentum. "We definitely expect to return to profitability very soon." However, the Corel head has made such vows before, only to watch his company's performance fail to live up to his -- or investors' -- expectations. Mr. Cowpland said he didn't know whether Corel's cash would continue to grow at the same rate for the rest of the second quarter, which ends April 30. But he said he's "comfortable with the trend" of rising cash levels. Analysts said month-to-month fluctuations in cash levels aren't necessarily reflective of a long-term trend in profitability. "Any time in a quarter, you can see ups and downs," said Pierre Boucher, a software analyst with HSBC James Capel Inc. in Montreal. Corel last reported a profit in the fourth quarter of 1996, when it made $6.5-million. The company has been mired in the red for the subsequent five quarters, losing a total of $252.9-million as its sales deflated in the face of tough competition from giant Microsoft Corp. in the office software market. But Mr. Cowpland said Corel's weekly retail sales for office software have at least tripled since the early part of March, propelled by deep price cuts put in place three weeks ago. Corel lowered prices by up to 50 per cent for customers who have an earlier version of its WordPerfect suite, or a competing brand. Mr. Cowpland said Corel is making money, even with the reduced prices, and said several major U.S. superstore retailers have sold out of WordPerfect products. "We think we've really hit the sweet spot," he said, adding that he thinks Corel can take 50 per cent of the units sold in the U.S. retail market for office software, a position it held briefly in the summer of 1996. Corel accounted for 20.9 per cent of unit sales in January, according to PC Data Inc. of Reston, Va. As in the past, Mr. Cowpland's optimism clashed with the skeptical stance of some analysts. "Every quarter they say they're turning it around, but they haven't," said John Shoesmith, an analyst for International Data Corp. (Canada) Ltd. in Toronto. Michel DeLavergne, a software analyst at Dlouhy Investments Inc. in Montreal, said he was surprised to hear that Corel's cash had jumped to $30-million. But he said he is still predicting that Corel will lose money in each of the three remaining quarters of its current fiscal year. He said Corel could move into the black if it implemented significant cost cutting or if it saw revenue from new products being launched this summer, but said either scenario is unlikely. "I don't see it happening right now."globeandmail.com