To: William T. Katz who wrote (2682 ) 4/2/1998 10:30:00 AM From: Dave Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
>But of all the internet stocks, AMZN is the most comfortable short AMZN is not an Internet stock. Remember that two year old cliche: information superhighway? Can you hear it? It's information. Information. Read it again. Information. Not business, not retail, not commodity. Business and this whole world will benefit from the Internet in a general way like they did from any other innovation in information technology. For some companies benefits will be particularly big. And those will be companies whose sole product is information. AOL and YHOO will be extremely successful because they use Internet to sell what can be sold there in a mater of a key stroke. (In essence they sell Internet itself and nothing else.) AMZN only uses Internet to take orders. After that, they are back on the Earth in the netless jungle where they belong. And where more earth-like laws of competition and valuation must be applied. Lets look back, 80 years ago or so. There must've been the first retailer to set a customer service telephone line. He found out that his customers very soon appreciated the convenience of it, and his revenues increased significantly. Do we remember the name of that retailer? I don't think so! 'Cause every other retailer in the country was doing the same thing in a couple of years. When I pick up the phone to find a dry cleaning I browse through the yellow pages and do not try to remember who was the first dry cleaner in my city to get a telephone installed. Don't discount this analogy. If there are some discrepancies they are only damaging to AMZN. In the end of the twentieth century, AMZN is the first retailer to get themselves a telephone in the store. Too bad the apparatus is so expensive and inefficient compared to what they are gonna have in a year or two. (Had to spend all that money to convince people to use it, too!) Unfortunately, after the job is done there will be no way to protect the investment. There will be twenty more Amazons, Danubes, Mississippies and Volgas out there. And nobody 5 years from now will remember who came first. (By way of analogy with AOL and YHOO, AT&T is still around and visible in the telephone book - 'cause in essence they were selling telephone services and nothing else.)