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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Kimball who wrote (9256)	4/2/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

>When you feel sick to your stomach it's not a good time to fold your position. This can happen either long or short, I've been both places. < for the advice! Pancho

To: Bob Kimball who wrote (9256)	4/2/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Bob, why do you think it bounced so hard today and yesterday? Its because of taking losses quickly. The generic feeling that the stock would crack once the tape had been painted for March led a lot of people to short at the end of March with stops; people just ran through the stops. (I think. This makes sense to me, though.) These last two days have definitely been a squeeze bonanza.

To: Bob Kimball who wrote (9256)	4/2/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

As I posted previously, I closed my long position last Friday. Timing was never one of my strong points!. Anyway, I thought I would mention a couple of things which I think are relevant to AOL and others .. including the search engines. Firstly, the market. Historically, my understanding is that the end of quarter upward bias usually continues through the beginning of the next quarter. This doesn't last more than a few days and for most players this is a chance to get ahead of the mean. Earnings start in earnest next week and this should cause a stall in the tech market. The search engines were looking very weak on the 1st ... until the economic numbers came in and Lycos announced a slew of e-commerce deals which caused a reversal to the market and the segment. AOL was the one "internet" play that wasn't showing weakness ...but I personally thought it would have had its gains eroded away in the afternoon ... a common pattern. For reasons previously stated, I expect the market and AOL to not show any weakness till the second half of the year. Nothing has changed but I still think a small short-term market pullback is probable. On a different note, a couple of things which I have heard people say, both on SI and on CNBC, is that until they started using technical analysis, they lost money trading. I was reminded of this by someone on CNBC yesterday who said he had changed from being a fundamentalist to a technician who considered the ongoing events of a stock. I got the impression this had considerably improved his performance. Also yesterday, I heard Cramer say something to the effect that the business of stocks being over-valued was overdone, and that no-one sells a winning stock unless there is some bad news to act as a catalyst to start the negative price action. I think both of these are relevant to AOL. Although I have previously touched on some technical aspects of AOL's chart and saw nothing but a minor pullback possible, I don't have sufficient confidence to try and sway people based upon what I know of TA. Its sad there is so little technical posting on SI. From a news standpoint, AOL seem to be masters at putting out positive news. So where does the catalyst come from to turn the stock ?? If the fundamentals aren't sufficient by themselves, then someone who is short needs exceptional timing or inside knowledge to time this one. This may constitute rambling, but there maybe something of value to someone. Goodluck to everyone Stephen