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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: shlomi cohen who wrote (1043)4/2/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: IngotWeTrust  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1998
 
Sounds good 2 me. Thx Shlomi! Sure nothin' scarey there! BTW, do you have a handle on what's really the "float?" Thx!

O/49r



To: shlomi cohen who wrote (1043)4/2/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: savolainen  Respond to of 1998
 
[cc]

greetings all,

much interesting info in the cc... my (paraphrased) favorites (to add to shlomi's list):

7. emerging markets: orctf is active in s america, s africa, australia, far east and new zealand..

s. american market is another year after usa and the soviets also... preferred not give specific examples for south america ... (something is up south of the border)

8. cost reduction programs: major one is fujitsu micoelectronics in england for integrated chip... very low cost adsl chipset... towards q3 or q4 in 98...

also ... orctf/fujitsu is developing a new box for the customer premises equipment (onu?)...for the telcos at this stage.. this will be ready in two to three months.. this is a cost reduction of $100 per link which is very significant ...

and orctf just introduced new adsl card... which has two modems per card... new adsl card will save 7-8% in gross margins... introducing right now

there are another 3-4 cost reduction items .. each one saves a little.. (but the big cost reduction is new chipset)

9. japanese market: skeptical about adsl market in japan...but very optimistic about vdsl market in japan (vdsl: mark l. this went by very quickly with no followup... took a couple of listens to catch it)..

the reason orctf is skeptical at this stage about adsl market in japan is fact that japan has a very specific isdn line... works in a different way... apparently if you put adsl and isdn on the same binder in japan there is a big interference problem ... until this technical problem is solved it isn't expected that the adsl market there will take off...

orctf knows how to solve it..., but this is a low priority in resource allocation for orctf and won't be addressed soon...and it is not expected that others will do it either (make it a high priority)...
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and what might be one of the bigger deals in month's ahead (your question): orctf feels the cpe market is going to be dominated by the computer industry, by co's like compaq and other suppliers of pc's in the long run (not a ringing endorsement for coms)... orctf is going to make money in this market based on the agreement they have with their silicon partners.... they are not going to compete in the cpe market directly ...it is a consumer market and therefore not for orckit whose effort and emphasis is on the central office...
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here's hoping for maybe a cpq or a dell for a distribution partner... again such potential would seem to hinge on signicance of deployment(s).. maybe europe and usa? if such were to occur would think a cpq not out of reach..

thanks shlomi for the heads up/follow thru in what turned out to be a rather rollercoasterish day...
s