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Technology Stocks : Brite Voice (BVSI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mark Willoughby who wrote (337)4/2/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: Bosco  Respond to of 495
 
Dear Rob & MArk - yes, the Cable & Wireless deal. From the fundamental standpoint, I think BVSI is a safer investment at this point.

Businesswise, it does not have much involvements in SE Asia and thus should steer clear of the Asian Flu Contagion (AFC.) For the last half a year, it has business deals with 2 major telcos (still think AT&T rip us off <fuming>.) Its international expansions are in the right geographical regions, namely Brazil and England. Presumbly, it has ejected the slower growth divisions with oodle amount of cash to fuel the hi growth segments.

Fundamentally speaking, the stock is not hugely inflated due to the poor growth of the past 2 years. However, if mgt vision is right on target - a BIG IF - then it will show growth with a cleaner balance sheet. And if we are to believe in mgt, the writeoff we ve to suffer thru last summer should show payoff in the form of reduced S/G/A.

Technically, it is still a gamble. We are kinda frontrunning. If the 50 dma can successfully bounce off the 200 dma, no harm done. Need a lot of sponsorship though to get the circulation going. Let's hope it is a delay reaction like the last time. If we can get 4x up volume tomorrow, ~250K, we may be able to have a double breakout 10.5 and 12.5 in a matter of days.

Or am I dreaming?

rgds Bosco



To: Mark Willoughby who wrote (337)4/2/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: david wolf  Respond to of 495
 
Hi guys, looks like I'm gone. Ejected from my position couple days ago. Based on my contacts, believe the upcoming quarter will look weak. BVSI may be poised for bigger and better things, but too many explosive stocks look more attractive. Wish I would have dumped this a month ago and bought more Lucent. Hope my instincts are wrong, best of luck, have enjoyed the thread.

David



To: Mark Willoughby who wrote (337)4/2/1998 6:23:00 PM
From: Rob Palmer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 495
 
Hi Mark (Bosco and all other Brite folks),

I looked back at a multi-year chart and discovered that I too originally invested in 1993, not 1994. Initial purchase at 4 3/4. I have added a number of shares since and sit on an average price of just over $11/share now.

I really believe that our new CEO is much better connected with the big players. The jury is still out on the AT&T deal profitability in my book. I really think this deal lays a foundation for an aquisition down the road if all goes well (clearly speculation on my part). In any case, we should be seeing many more deals to come.

Q1 could definitely be a wild card, but regardless, things should improve later in the year. I feel that the market is nervous about earnings this quarter and it is keeping a lid on the upside.

The balance sheet is squeeky clean, especially after the recent asset sale. This leaves numerous options open for managment and keeps Brite very nimble. As soon as management can get on an earnings roll again (and it will happen) the stock will really move nicely. I'm sure you (Mark) have this thought in your mind, having owned BVSI as long as I have.

There have been 2 separate opportunities in the past to sell in the $20s. BVSI has always had a very high beta and when things are running on all cylinders again we will be at a much higher price. Brite is a long termer for me and I look at the pullbacks as buying opportunities. I honestly feel that I will someday sell in the $30s. $30 was my previous sell point and we got within a couple bucks. After recent purchases, I now have twice as many shares. The price could get higher if management has a future sale of the company in mind.

Who knows, maybe David will buy back in if there is another pullback after Q1 earnings? I personally hope for a big upside surprise. It's real hard to predict quarter to quarter earnings, for me at least.

I would love to hear your comments on this post. Good luck guys and thanks for this great forum! Pardon my lengthy post.

Rob