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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (1880)	4/2/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

<< The 96 channel system might as well be 196 because noone is buying the large scale systems. Customers do get warm fuzzies if they know that a system is scaleable to large numbers but basically its a marketing gag. The rush to see who can put more channels on a fiber is a big hero experiment that has no market for the time being. >> I agree. Remember I tried to make that argument on this thread a while back. I thought it was pointless to argue about some 80 channel product several months away that probably wouldn't be fully utilized. Correct again, the scaleability feature gives peace of mind. But people wanted to argue technology so I did. Obviously the long-haul market has provided the bulk of revenues for CIEN so far. I have read research reports that said the market potential for the Firefly is $10 billion in the next 5-7 years. I don't think LU will take more than 1/2 the business so that leaves a lot for CIEN. I was disappointed to learn that Bell Atlantic was expected to spend so little in the next 5 years. Unfortunately CIEN needs big contracts like the Sprint contract recently announced to offset the WCOM push-outs. Rinky dink contracts like the BA one won't cut it. Anyway I don't know why CIEN is acting so weak but I'm glad to be out of it. Time to jump back into the internet stocks (on full margin!) until CIEN settles in.