To: Len Hynes who wrote (241 ) 4/2/1998 11:16:00 PM From: Bob Vukovich Respond to of 601
The Pacific International Research Report is finally viewable on our website: gentryresources.com under the Analyst Report Section. Here is the Pacific International Securities Analyst says about our Net Asset Value adjusted for dedt. (pre-financing). These number look even better now. Evaluation Our evaluation of Gentry is based on estimated net asset value of the Western Canadian properties, a risk adjusted evaluation of the potential reserves on the Ofoubou Ankani block in Gabon and on Blocks CI-102, CI-103 and CI-101 in Ivory Coast, and a nominal value for the company's interests in Australia and Newfoundland. The company reported a net asset value of $16.008 million at a 10% discount rate at the end of 1996. Assuming a 25% increase in NAV to 1997 year end we anticipate that the current NAV is about $1.15 per fully diluted share. At the present market price the stock is trading at our estimated NAV. The estimated recoverable reserves on the Ofoubou Ankani block in Gabon are 35 million bbls of which Gentry's share is 12.25 million bbls. We have estimated a netback per bbl of C $9.25 based on a Brent Crude price forecast of US $18.00/bbl. Discounting the netback to an approximate present value of $3.00 per bbl we calculate an unrisked value of Gentry's reserves at C $36.75 million or $1.98/share (fully diluted). However this is an unrisked evaluation and since the reserves are estimated on the single untested well drilled by Conoco/Occidental and recent seismic data some risk adjustment is appropriate. Based on a 30% risk adjusted value we estimate a value of $11.0 million or $0.60 per share. In the Ivory Coast several exploration targets have been identified on Block CI-102. Other oil fields in the vicinity range from 22 to 120 million bbls of oil. If we assume that a 50 mmbbl field is potentially possible and that, since there are at present three targets to drill, we assume a 30% probability of discovery then the risk adjusted net reserves to Gentry are 1.8 mmbbls with a discounted value of $5.4 million or $0.29 per share. On Block CI-101 a potential gas and condensate prospect has been indicated from the 1980 Phillips Petroleum well that tested 30 mmcf/d. Natural gas fields in the area range from 100 BCF to 500 BCF. Assuming a 100 BCF field, Gentry's share would be 17 BCF which, valued at a discounted C $0.30 per mcf, equates to a value of $5.1 million or $0.28 per share. The Australian and Newfoundland properties are all exploratory concessions with unknown reserve potential so at the present time we have assigned only a modest value of $1.0 million ($0.05/share) for these properties. In summary our valuation is $2.37 per share on a fully diluted basis adjusted to $2.21 per share to include the company's long term debt, as tabulated below: Valuation Per share (fully diluted) Western Canada ('97 Est. NAV) $1.15 Gabon Reserves PotentialRisked at 30% of total estimated reserves $0.60 Ivory Coast Reserve Potential (risk adjusted) Block CI-102 $0.29 Block CI-101 $0.28 Australia and Newfoundland $0.05 $2.37 Less Long Term Debt ($2.9 MM) $0.16 $2.21 Cash flow for 1998 from the companies producing properties in Western Canada is estimated at $2.1 million or $0.12 per share (basic) and $0.10 per share (fully diluted). Based on cash flow alone therefore the Western Canadian properties could be valued at about $0.60 to $0.70 per share. The shares are currently trading at about 9.2 x estimated 1998 cash flow. Thus Net Asset Value per share including debt was $2.21 share and current trading price is ~$1.00. Cheers, Bob Vukovich Manager of Investor Relations Gentry Resources Ltd.