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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (2840)	4/3/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9980

Tommaso in reference to what am I doing with my assetts. I think my current position is like that of a small frog caught in the middle of the road. I am watching the on coming headlights of an 18 wheeler on a damp night. I'm wondering what the hell to do? Jump? Just when we thought we knew what was happening and I could sketch out some scenarios that seemed to work... we now have US$ 10 trillion in funds suddenly available for mutual fund purchases in the US and Europe. Did I dream this up? Can this be right? As a novelist I couldn't possibly invent something this bizaare and odd. But we now have the entire savings of the Japanese nation... that is now free, apparently, by Japanese law... to invest at world returns. Rate of returen for this pool os assets has been 1% in Japan. What will now happen? Dow at 10,000 surely, 15,000, 20,000??? My head spins from the three dimensional chess I am playing. Everytime I have bet against the US market...no kidding, from 1,300 upwards I have been wrong Tommaso. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. I have hedged, shorted, taken contrary bets... been in gold, gold mines, commodities, etc. I've done eveything goddamn thing a human mind can think of to take a contary position against this market in the US. Against say GE, say, I have lost lots of money. Against my position Merck, and GE gone up 10X since '82. I feel like an absolute idiot. I am an idiot. I should now put my money in Nations Bank stock and just sit back and read poetry. Everytime you understand the game they change the rules. Now Japan. I sincerely believe that the US monetary authorities cut the following deal with Japan. "You can't fix it. You let us have your money. We'll stand by you. Well be your best customer. The market will save you in the end. In the meantime give us all your money... as good faith that you won't out trade us. We'll be there for you. But you have to get your fiscal house in order." Hey, Japan has 20% of it's asset base in a "damaged" (read cratered) condition with the bad loans on the bank's book. News today. Merill Lynch analyst in Tokyo; Public radio, 6:16 Eastern Standard time. What intrigues me and perplexes me about Korea - one of the winner places in Asia having spent some time there - is the "big bang" when SKM and other henceforth (then) freely converted will, theoretically, gap down 50%. That moment, combined with a scenario of gloom everywhere will be the time to buy Korea. Bernie says the Malaysian market is in meltdown mode. I'd say yes. To be expected followed by most of Asia except China. Now, however to further the Stratfor comminication posted by Craig...what in hell happens with say, 3 trillion US $ of Japanese money in the US markets??? Let's think about some possible scenarios since we are the most astute investors in the world here. The intelligence of this board always has amazed me. (except me, I'm only a mouldering Asian historian on the blistering frontiers of Asian economic history here) Stratfor is wrong in citing the 1920's and the rise of xenophobia in Japan, in the post-Meiji centerists... that this is the possible extremist future of Japan. The LDP is at 1929 right now. The problem is will there be gloom and doom in the world and not just Asaia? Jesus. I don't know the answer to this. I'm getting to the point I don't even believe anymore in the Terminator (the other James Cameron creation... before he discovered love after his own three divorces).