Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (9585)	4/2/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

Gregg, thanks for that! I decided that after asking you politely twice, you didn't want to give away your calculations on subscriber numbers. Which you still haven't though you kindly shared your guess on royalties. Third time lucky? Which month for cdmaOne handset sales to exceed GSM handset sales? Hoping to have caught you in a generous mood. It will help people give a proper valuation on Qualcomm, help sales of cdmaOne equipment and therefore help your own investment position. It might even become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mqurice PS: Let's see, $15 royalty per handset x 30 million new customers in 1999 = $450 million handset royalties. 2000, 60 million x $15 = $900 million. Gee, that is getting to be a bit. Then there are handset, ASIC, infrastructure sales, Omnitracs, Eudora, infrastructure royalties, Globalstar profits. Heck. We'll need big wheelbarrows to carry large denomination bills. Ooops, hang on, I heard North Korea is going to buy South Korea and turn it into an outpost of Siberia.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (9585)	4/2/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg & Maurice, Gregg, Yeah,I was actually thinking that 10$ might be safe and reasonable but you've outbid me.Hopefully you're right, however I agree that the numbers must be frontend loaded. Maurice, Here's some numbers extracted from an article in Wireless Review. The numbers themselves come from the "Strategis Group", whoever that is.The article deals with cloning and is kind of interesting. It claims that AMPS cloning is so relatively easy that no one is really bothering with digital systems yet, and that CDMA network builders in particular are not taking the necessary precautions because they haven't been forced to..The article goes on to state that with GSM. protection is built implicitly right into the system. Sounds like the old Omnipoint rap. Perhaps someone of technical bent could comment. Here's the numbers: 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 800MHZAmps 41.2 50.1 52.2 50.9 45.9 37.4 27.3 800MHZCDMA .03 0.2 1.0 2.1 4.2 7.0 12.2 800MHZTDMA 1.84 3.4 5.5 8.1 11.8 18.2 23.6 1.9GHZCDMA 0 1.2 6.0 12.1 18.7 24.2 27.6 1.9GHZGSM .3 1.0 3.3 6.3 9.6 12.1 13.7 1.9GHZTDMA .6 2.6 4.9 7.1 8.7 9.6 other PCS .3 .7 1.7 2.6 3.3 Total Subs 43.5 56.6 70.8 85.4 99.2 110.5 117.8 These are numbers for the U.S. 117 million total wireless subscribers by 2002 is about a 30% penetration rate for every man woman and child in the country,a doubling in the next four years, maybe a little optimistic but who knows.Looks like 40 mil CDMA subs by 2002. Would rates in Japan be similar, or are they in too much of a funk? It's off subject but I was foolishly a bit surprised that the Tankin Survey which triggered a nice selloff in Japan and Asia overnight was cause for such celebration over here. LU probably gained the equivalent of QCOM's entire mkt cap today. What me worry? Anyway I believe there'll be no GSM or TDMA to contend with over there,although I might need a knuckle slap for that one......Hope this helps. All the best.........Dave

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (9585)	4/2/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 152472

Gregg- That also jives with what Harv said in a Feb 97 presentation in SF (RS&Co tech conf). I believe they figured an average over the next five years of $400 per subscriber in infrastructure and phones. Figuring 2-5% royalties, that's $8-$20 per sub in royalties. Now assuming the Q sells 10% of the infrastructure and phones, now we are really starting to talk dough. Why is LU trading at a pe of 190? More buyers than sellers, I know. Caxton