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Technology Stocks : CRUS, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Badger who wrote (5484)	4/2/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: Grand Poobah	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8193

Re: when are earnings? Earnings will be released Apr 22 after the market closes. I think Ted is rather courageous to stand up and be counted as believing Mr. Teo made a mistake with his investment. Whether or not it will turn out to be a good deal for him in the long term is largely a matter of opinion right now. My opinion is that it will be a good deal if you wait a year or two. But Ted is right on when he says that Mr. Teo is human and can make mistakes like the rest of us. If he was all-knowing or controlled the future of the stock price as some have suggested here, he would have at least waited to buy until the price dropped to the $10-11 range it is in now instead of buying around $13-17 like he did. However, I also think Wall Street cares about this quarter's earnings. A huge disaster or big upside surprise would send the stock up or down, I think. But I would agree with Ted if the point he is trying to make, perhaps by some exaggeration, is that we shouldn't expect the return to $20 that some people are predicting will happen if this quarter's earnings are decent. I think earnings at or a few cents above expectations could send the stock up because it would remove some of the nagging uncertainty people feel with it, but I strongly doubt if it would break $15 just on the strength of that. What I am hoping for as a CRUS investor is a couple years of sustained profits and a long term increase in earnings even if they don't go up sequentially every quarter. If, and only if, we see that do I expect to see a strong rise back to levels over $20. At this point it is just too hard to tell if that scenario has a good chance of happening, and that combined with short-term concerns about Asia, is keeping the stock price down. I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't think the stock price reflects a feeling by Wall Street that management is totally incompetent (or else I think the stock price would be a lot lower, maybe $5-7) but rather more of a feeling of uncertainty based on the short track record recently of good earnings. Even if management was out there boldly proclaiming an obviously brilliant vision and strategy, I think Wall Street would still want to wait to see the proof in the earnings. Even the Street's judgement of the future is heavily based on the performance in the past. They are not much better, and perhaps sometimes worse, than us at judging how a company's products will do in the market and how their technology could be applied in the future. I, too, would be interested in hearing some substantive evaluations of specific management decisions and strategies from Ted and Calvin (and others). I would especially be interested in what you think of their moves within the last year to the extent you are informed about that. We all know that management screwed up in late 1995, and while there may be some value in revisiting those mistakes, I would be more interested in hearing how well or if you think they have recovered since then. I would like to offer my own opinion on this at some point, but I need some time to mull it over. G.P.