Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Kimball who wrote (15113)	4/2/1998 7:33:00 PM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

Bob you are hitting the nail with your comparison: "A leak boat staying afloat in a greedy market". History has proven that these "speculative bubbles" can not go on forever. If the correction comes and it will inevitably come the leak boats are going to sink first ! Take a look at the semis tomorrow. KLIC just warned that they will report a loss (!) this quarter. This will calm the semis down again after shooting up like crazy following KLAC's warning (!). Other stocks will follow sooner or later. This Asian crisis is going to become slowly reality here.

To: Bob Kimball who wrote (15113)	4/3/1998 12:17:00 AM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Bob, What's the 'order imabalances'? Is this Level 2 data? Agree with your post. Long Bond at 5.84% gives support to this 'momentum'. But shorts are climbing on weak looking stocks, like COMS, and probably looking for good opportunity to short the rest of the market. In a week or so, earnings season starts, and this should give us a good idea of direction the market will be going. My prediction: low earnings, stocks will go higher, (except COMS this month) but only if E.Asia doesn't fall apart. If they do, we'll have another Oct. like correction. My personal model has 3 parameters: 1) liquidity - Will still be pretty intense this month. 2) long bond yield - Depends on Japanese & HK stock markets, and also whether E.Asia hits us with a 2nd wave of bad news. Or whether economy actually speeds up and Feds actually think of increasing rates (hard to believe, this would mean another quarter of good earnings - don't think so) 3) Earnings - probably not so good, with lots of exceptions, like MSFT and KO. Warning, this model is very crude. For more accurate forecast, see saju chacko's 1,398 parametric simulation. Joe