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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (18453)	4/2/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

regarding the chairman of sony- he stated the japanese is "currently facing its most difficult time ever" and could become"the trigger of world recession" nobody buying anything-klic got not a pushout but a cancellation from its biggest customer because its cutting back its spending this year. i now believe their is a 15% chance amat could take a loss in the august quarter. would not be shocked. don;t worry the stock will be probobly go higher.

To: jtechkid who wrote (18453)	4/2/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: David Rosenthal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

jtechkid, I am constantly amazed. I just read more "happy talk" following KLIC's announcement. I wonder if people are even looking at the size of that cancelled order. That is 100 bonders! I don't know what they cost but lets say for arguments sake that they are $500,000 (just a guess. Does someone have a more accurate figure?). This makes it 50 million of revenue lost. This is 40% of their revenue for a quarter. And this is just one customer. Personally, I am floored by the size of the cancellation. This recent tech run is pure momentum and liquidity-based so all I can say is watch out when the sentiment turns, which could be tomorrow. Dave

To: jtechkid who wrote (18453)	4/2/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Kid - the third quarter(july) its getting worse-they (KLIC) said nothing about a pickup in demand Well, to repeat myself again. I've always said that I expect that the bottom in orders will occur in the July timeframe (although over the past four months it has moved from June/July to July/August). I still think that, and it still amazes me that the highly paid CEO's are surprised - but it's human nature. The only possible flies in the ointment are truly slowing PC unit growth (as opposed to channel stuffing or Intel losing market share) or another macroeconomic hiccup (Japan or China imploding). Clark