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Gold/Mining/Energy : maverick (MAVK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ajay Aggarwal who wrote (167)	4/2/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: Paul Moerman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 432

Have you shorted MAVK yet as you recently advocated on the NSS thread doing for that stock? If so, I'd take your motivations into account when considering the objectivity of your opinion. Long MAVK.

To: Ajay Aggarwal who wrote (167)	4/2/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: Steve Rolfe	Respond to of 432

Duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuude, Broker Recommendations Rating # Brokers Strong Buy 4 Buy 1 Hold 3 Under Perform 0 Sell 0 Consensus (Mean) 1.875* *(1 = Strong Buy, 5 = Sell) Rating Changes # Ratings # Ratings upgraded last month 0 # Ratings downgraded last month 0 Quarterly EPS Estimates Period EPS Current Fiscal Quarter (03/1998) $0.32 Next Fiscal Quarter (06/1998) $0.41 Annual EPS Estimates Period EPS Current Fiscal Year (1998) $1.71 Next Fiscal Year (1999) $2.43 Upcoming Earnings Release Dates Quarter Ending Release Date 03/1998 04/18/1998 06/1998 07/17/1998 Long Term Growth Rate Forecast Expected annual increase in operating earnings over the next full business cycle (3-5 years) 30.00% Latest Reported Quarterly EPS Quarter EPS 12/1997 $0.43 09/1997 $0.35 06/1997 $0.26 03/1997 $0.20 It looks like the last quarter was their best yet. They preannounced early in this quarter a lower estimate of .32. When you consider that the stock reached 50 last october and they predict earnings to go up to .41 next quarter I doubt very seriously you will see 10 anytime soon. Are you sure we are talking about the same stock? <g>

To: Ajay Aggarwal who wrote (167)	4/3/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: Andreas Samson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 432

Ajay, do you know something about Maverick Tube we don't know?....on paper nothing would suggest shorting at this time. Oil drilling is approximately 25% of its business, which, in theory, should limit its exposure to OPEC fluctuation, but if you lay a graph of oil futures prices over a graph of the MAVK stock value over the last five months, the two correspond pretty closely. MAVK shouldn't be joined at the hip with oil futures, but it is. So perhaps the picture isn't as simple as it seems. Another mystery: Right in the Dec 10-Q, they say wholesale steel has dropped by $35/ton, and most of this windfall will be reflected in the 2Q. $35 X 134,000 tons = $4.69M = .30/share. Extra cash, this quarter alone. But they've reduced their earnings target from .43 to .35. Why is that? Anybody? BTW, I talked to IR yesterday, and they've confirmed they will make their quarter and are 'comfortable' with the year-end number of $1.70 I quoted off First Call, so we're talking a P/E of 10.5, against a projected growth rate of 30%, a value play if there ever was. In the 1Q conf. call, they stated drilling had INCREASED in the December quarter and their end users (the drillers) foresaw no reduction in future drilling unless oil fell below $15/barrel. We're at $16 now....so, are you arguing that oil will drop below $15?