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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9192)	4/2/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116895

Is high gold the only chance that Euro has against greenback? Dollar Rises for Fifth Consecutive Session 06:46 p.m Apr 02, 1998 Eastern By Al Yoon NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen for the fifth straight day Thursday after a weak report on Japanese business sentiment, but was held back by speculation that Japan would boost its economy with income tax cuts. The U.S. currency also extended gains against the mark amid doubts over the success of Europe's planned monetary union. In late trading, the dollar was at 133.68 yen, up from 133.62 Wednesday. It rose to 1.8546 marks from 1.8540. The yen was pressured after the Bank of Japan said its quarterly report of business sentiment of large manufacturers plummeted to minus 31 in March from minus 11 in December. The level was the lowest in 3-1/2 years. The yen was also pressured after U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky criticized Japan's efforts at reforming its financial system, known as the ''Big Bang.'' Japan's program was too vague on key issues and often delays implementation of deregulation measures, she said. ''Barshefsky said the Big Bang fell short of expectations and people bought some dollars on the back of that,'' Seth Garrett, chief dealer at Credit Suisse First Boston, said. Traders earlier reported strong interest to sell dollars for yen had originated out of Asia after Japan daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper quoted sources saying at least half of Japan's 16 trillion yen ($124 billion) stimulus package announced last week would be in the form of tax cuts and public spending programs. But with one of the highest rates of savings in the world, traders questioned whether income tax cuts would do the job. ''I'm thinking that even income tax cuts won't work because if they have more money, all they are going to do is save it,'' said Chris Melendez, senior dealer at Sanwa Bank California. The dollar retained its vigor against the mark, propped throughout the session following comments from Bundesbank council member Reimut Jochimsen that raised doubts about the strength of the planned European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and its currency, the euro. Jochimsen said in an interview with Reuters that broad membership in EMU could prove disastrous as several member countries, including Italy and Belgium, have fallen short of the required fiscal rectitude. ''People realize coming into EMU they have to reduce their exposure in all European currencies,'' a trader at a French bank in New York said. In other trading, the dollar fell to 1.5330 Swiss francs from 1.5343 on Wednesday and rose to Canadian $1.4204 from C$1.4176. The pound was lower at $1.6635 from $1.6710. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9192)	4/2/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116895

think the Euro can't work so dollar will still dominate.. the economies of the different European countries just seem to different..even if backed by gold..the Japanese currency doesn't sound so great..also I bet a lot of us corps have been buying up SA assets..we also have Gates! just guessing

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9192)	4/2/1998 9:22:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Respond to of 116895

George, I tend to agree with you ... and it would seem logical that some of the Japanese money could end up diverted to the Euro from the greenback - thereby taking some of the steam out of the US stock market ... my 2 cents. MB

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9192)	4/2/1998 9:24:00 PM
From: Terry Rose	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116895

George, Here are some thoughts. I think Japan just poured some more pension money into the black hole of their stock market. Although their market opened up strongly at 250+, it has now entered negative territory on it's way to it's final bottom. Until the Bank of Japan raises their interest rates to protect their currency, I think this blood-bath will continue. If I were a Japanese citizen and could now invest abroad I would jump at the chance. My alternative is to stay in cash or buy bonds at 1% and get hammered. No on second thought I would be buying a hell of a lot of gold. Another one bites the dust. Daiichi Corp, a fairly large financial institution plans to call it quits. All major Japanese banks with exposure to Daiichi Corp have already written off their losses. Although the losses are over 1-2 billion dollars these banks state that they have sufficient equity to remain solvent. But even if they don't the Bank of Japan can just print up more yen and lend it to them at 0.5%. Terry,

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9192)	4/2/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Casey	Respond to of 116895

George: <<And with the Euro coming down the pike (probably heavily backed by gold) the dollar is going to be taken down a few pegs at the very least. >> I've read that there is pressure mounting to delay the introduction of the Euro because the feeling is that they cannot handle both Y2k and Euro conversion together.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9192)	4/3/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116895

three more thoughts.. dollar also may remain strong if people just start piling in to short term treasuries as a safe haven.. also am watching year2000 plays and internet casino plays year2000 to show sentiment growing towards fear of impending disaster internet casino..as metaphor for current market :> ps..wonder if Peter M. and friends made a bundle shorting BRE-X since just released that in '96 when they couldn't find gold in practically all of those attempts :< --wonder if that could be insider information or just fair game..(never bought the stock but neglected to think of the damage of margin calls)