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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (130)	4/3/1998 12:07:00 AM
From: porcupine --''''>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1722

<< I believe that your post stated, "It's different this time. >> I have written at some length, elsewhere, that it is naive error to say, "This time is different", intending through irony to mean, "Of course it won't be -- it never is." The whole meaning of History (in the Western conception) is that this time is always different. In the (traditional) Eastern conception, the West's sense of History is meaningless, since, for them, everything is really eternal present, and any appearance to the contrary is merely illusion. But, going back at least as far as ancient Greece, and perhaps as far back as Biblical times, the West has viewed change as the only permanence. Interestingly, even a cursory review of the stories of Genesis strongly suggests that human nature has not changed. But, most of us believe the circumstances under which human nature plays out have changed. As just 2 examples, were this not the case, a third World War would long since have passed, and we would be busily storing up rocks in anticipation of a fourth. Likewise, we would already have had another "Great Depression", far greater than that of the 1930's. << The market can go much, much higher without being overvalued." >> In fact, my position for some time has been that the Market already is overvalued. However, I don't agree with those who say it is way out of line. I have written on the free GADR e-mail list (which you, and anyone else, are welcome to join by e-mailing me at: gadr@nyct.net) the Market is "mildly, but not wildly" overvalued. But, I also believe that it can continue to be overvalued for some time to come. I don't believe that it can double in the next 3 years, as it did in the past 3. And, given the current momentum, I fear that it may try. Yet, if the Market goes up 60% from here, then falls back a "calamitous" 40%, that would only leave the Market 4% down from where it is now.