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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (9594)	4/2/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Thought provoking: <<After all, what is the strength of Japan that propelled them to the second largest economy? I can't think of anything that all the other Asian knock-off artists can't duplicate in due time.>> I think the essence of Japanese success was an <enforced> high level of corporate and individual savings and investment in the future; high levels of personal/educational investment in the future; and a relative lack of social conflict and worker discipline. All of this worked beautifully in a semi command society. I.e., an emulation of existing blueprints to success if you can only show enough discipline society. What they are weak on is self righting, homeostatic mechanisms that work when it is not obvious which way is the right way to go. (Which is the situation this country is very often in, but whose mechanisms work very well for.) Probing every thing to find what works. Creativity. Funding of creative probing into what might work (but will probably fail), but if it works, will be big. Etc., etc. They also face a huge population bulge problem. The U.S. in contrast has allowed in huge legal, and winked at huge illegal immigrant young populations. Many of whom create huge social problems with the current mix especially, but at least help the demographics. Different set of problems. We do seem to have a big dumbing down problem. I.e., virtually everything in the U.S. supports huge growth in the population of the less educated and indeed the less successful and less smart. And the reverse for the more successful.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (9594)	4/2/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: synchro	Respond to of 152472

The other Asians did not have General MacArthur... It's a joke! It's a joke!

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (9594)	4/3/1998
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

Mr. R. Su. Mr. slick Ramboy. Mr. sophisticated world politicman. Let me make this real simple for you. Should I buy back my long term love Qcom here or let the girl go for a while? Huhhhh. R man???? Regards, Doug

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (9594)	4/3/1998 2:25:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 152472

Ramsey - OT if Japan goes into the great depression, whether that is good or bad for the US, or even the rest of Asia? Pure speculation here, but if they go into a true depression (10% decline in GDP or some such), it would almost certainly knock us into recession in the short term, just because they take up so much of our exports, and fund so much of our expansion with cheap capital. But, unless it is a steep enough drop to cause some of our major banks to fail, which I doubt, I don't think it will drive us into a depression. So, we'll probably come out of it in a year or two. As for whether it is bad for the rest of Asia - very. Japan, as the only major economy in SEA, soaks up a huge percentage of SEA exports. As for Doug's claim about the Great Depression, I agree that Germany was in even worse shape than the US in the late 20's and early 30's (largely because the WW I allies were bankrupting them). And certainly France and England went through a bad recession, but they fell nowhere near as far, and recovered sooner, at least in part because they did not participate in the structural excesses of the American 20's. I'll have to get some stats on it to prove it to Doug.