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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (18468)	4/3/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Howie, The semi equip stocks are moving on momentum alone, IMO. There is no compelling reason/motive to buy at these prices above $38. I think there will be a lot of profit taking and movement by investors into cash positions due to nervousness caused by high market valuations. A clue would be to watch the volume, if the volume goes up while the price goes down, watch out! I think fund managers are under pressure to invest somewhere and since everything else is so overpriced the semis offered a place to locate some of that money - short term. Last time I observed this phenomenon a lot of money came in from overseas, real estate was very expensive, and then the funds started taking profits and the markets dropped significantly from their highs, ala 1987-88. Folks who got out late or who decided to ride out the losses had huge paper losses for a few years. The issue as I see it now is there is just no where else to "invest", the rest of the world markets are unstable, at best, and Asian currencies aren't worth the paper they're printed on. IMO investors should be very cautious, don't get caught with your pants down, it is very hard to run this way. If the markets do have a significant decrease, who will be buying as prices are dropping rapidly?? The bull is nearly exhausted IMO. Very short term maybe as high as $41. Within 2 months below $32. Just my opinion, BB