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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (3304)	4/2/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: Linda Kaplan	Respond to of 7041

Well said, Dr. Svelte. Linda

To: drsvelte who wrote (3304)	4/3/1998 12:37:00 AM
From: Dauntless	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7041

drsvelte, civil responses to some of your points I always respond civilly to reasonable people. But not always in order. <<<Second, let's assume ZONA is not a fraud and Mr. Podoloski is not a crook. Let's assume everyone at ZONA is working hard to do the right thing.>>> You're absolutely correct here. See, I CAN be agreeable. (;-)) <<<Sixth, why would anyone invest (or hold) in this stock now?>>> First, there's lots of difference between a new investment and holding - but I'm sure you know that. Many people believed that Zonagen was going down when it was 15, they are now looking at 50% gains in 2 months. Some have been in since it was $3/share (VBG)- have taken huge profits & still hold some. The market for development stage biotech is LARGELY emotional - very difficult to accurately value. If Zonagen happens to reach the (meager) maximum potential allotted to it, say 10% of the anticipated market - EPS will be very large - it's the crap shoot. Don't you have ANY high risk stocks in your portfolio?? <<<(I am not a physician or pharmalogical PhD, but even the permabulls on Vasomax seem to agree that the effectiveness is rather limited)>>> With ABSOLUTELY NO DISRESPECT INTENDED, you should not invest in development stage biotech companies unless you know what you're doing. The amount of specialized knowledge makes this area very risky. Many of the comments posted on this thread indicate a less than perfect understanding about drug development, clinical trials, acceptable efficacies, the NDA process, the entire patent process, and drug marketing - just to name a few. Problem with these threads is that everyone is instantly a board member - but without the specialized expertise and experience. Example - do you know how SGP has fared in competing against Pfizer in a market where they (SGP) entered late? Do you know the medical specialties where SGP is strong - weak?? Do you know what other drugs SGP and or PFE sells to the Vasomax target market?? I'm not belittling you - maybe you know all these answers - but unless you do, your knowledge is imperfect and in this field (drugs) trying to pick a winner in a situation like Zonagen's is foolish. <<<Fourth, it may be a year or more before Vasomax receives FDA approval, given the scenarios suggested. A year is an eternity in this business. Product life cycles are truncating at a rapid pace, particularly in this industry. Viagra, or Muse (or Caveject?), will be the products of choice for the next nine months>>> But everyone is in the same boat - no one will be able to develop a product any quicker than anyone else (barring screw-ups). Vasomax will likely be the next drug to join Viagra - Muse & Caverject will only be used by those not satisfied with an oral med. A year is not an eternity - it's about $15 - $25 million in expenses for Zonagen - depending on their level of development activity. This is offset by SGP milestone payments & royalties <<<how can they possibly be a viable player in this market? To little too late. Given the cash burn, can they even last that long?>>> They have $68 million in the bank - lets say the remaining milestone payments ($47 million) are spread evenly over the '98 - '00 - that's $16 M/year. Last, you can ridicule the Latin American market all you want, but I'll be you it will contribute a nice little chunk of change in '99. Sooooo, it looks to me like they're in a great cash position. BTW, how can there be so many antibiotics, anti-inflammatories, calcium channel blockers, beta blockers, etc., etc. I guess it all just depends on what you believe can happen - and how important it is to you that it does. It's an individual thing -we'll find out soon enough. Pleasant dreams.