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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Rosenthal who wrote (18480)	4/2/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Respond to of 70976

regarding klic, i heard no upbeat notion from the management in fact they seemed shellshocked. my point regarding semi's have constantly that eps have to come down dramatically and business is a lot worst than expected. which is obviously true. what i think its funny is everybody say its not a surprise then why are estimates 36 cents for the quarter. also, soundview finacial-pretty good tech firm -called the last downturn in 1996-said in history semi's usually bottom out around 1x sales of last year sales. amat is trading at 3xsales. amat estimates are for 1.52(considering they already did 52cents in the first) no way they come close. does it matter-market is irrational-at some point we will see a panic probably in relations with a market pullback or another crash in asia. my point their is no reason being long right now. obviously people forget 1996. but this is not 1996. well when the numbers start to come out 1996 might look better. also if the market takes hit lets see if these fund managers are convicted or compelled to hold these things up. right now its like musical chairs -last one standing is going to get killed. maybe this is different , maybe liquidity is to strong-to much money-but my point this time if the market crashes or semi's fall apart their is no excuses everybody had plenty opportunity or warning. the logic is this, klic awful numbers-pray it goes up ---smart money is selling .just my imo. amat wild card is japan according to morgan-unfortunately if he's in vegas he just lost because he has no wild cards and his hand does not look pretty-only hope is if the crowd (market) is to drunk to care or realize-either way it will be nasty hangover.