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To: PnclNk who wrote (17817)4/3/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Actually, I'm not a value investor, except when it comes to the oil sector. I'm much more comfortable investing in growth situations. For example, I have a hard time rationalizing the forward-looking P/E of a company like IBM when it is showing very little top-line growth. On the other hand, I have no problem being comfortable with stocks like DELL and PSFT.

My thoughts on the market in general are that it is being driven by a confluence of events. Very low unemployment means that lots of baby boomers are putting a lot of money into the market, and they're not thrilled with the idea of earning 6 per cent, so the money is going into equities. Second, interest rates are low, which is always a driver for equities. Third, inflation is virtually non-existent. Fourth, the deficit seems to be a thing of the past. All of these factors are driving the market up. And Greenspan, in a speech delivered today, seemed to be able to rationalize the market's valuation.

On the other hand, earnings seem to be tapering off, and the balance of trade is getting worse. The Fed is getting very antsy because of the Phillips curve => low unemployment gives rise to inflation. So, they may hike rates soon.

I have a feeling that the market will be taken down sector by sector, rather than in a single big sell-off. The result may be that the market will not appear to go anywhere ove a year or so, but ther could very well be significant movement between sectors. Look at drugs and internet stocks vs. semiconductors and the oil sector as an example.

So, basically, I don't know. But then, I never know. Which is why I always stay 100% invested.

Regards,

Paul