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To: Michael D. Muzzie who wrote (10791)	4/3/1998 8:43:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Respond to of 213177

Michael, How my question above relates to AAPL??? How much of a positive Q2 earnings report is already figured into the stock price of AAPL? Is it realistic to believe that an earnings prediction such as Eric Yang's, or Leonardo, or Gavin Young, combined with sustained growth, would immediately push AAPL into the 32-35 range? Welcome to the board. Well, nobody knows how much the factor of positive Q2 has been factored into the current price. Personally, I believe it is very limited due to analysts' skeptical attitudes towards Apple's turning-around. Apple's still extremely undervalued compared to Dell, Gateway, Compaq, Microsoft, etc. It only has 3.6b market value, as opposed to Microsoft's 222b, Dell's 44b, Gateway's 7.2b, and Compaq's 39b. The market has not adjusted Apple's real value back to the norm yet. The reason is simple, the money managers want to see more evdience of Apple's recovery. I think Q2 is very important for those analysts to adjust their judgements accordingly. It's believed that Jobs realized the situation and hence I totally bet on his attitudes to make Q2 with much better perspectives. I think net income will be within $0.15 - $0.80 based on people's estimates here. But, revenue is a key to make analysts impressed if it can break the historical pattern - with 1.6+b. I put very little on options since it's short-term oriented speculation, therefore I don't have time-limited pressure. You are right that Jobs may leak with G3's sales data in Q2 if he thinks it's a right time to announce. Besides, with G3's sales in Q2, there are still lots of data unknown which increases the possibility of revealing such data. Phil

To: Michael D. Muzzie who wrote (10791)	4/3/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: rhet0ric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

A Random Walk Down Wall Street I just read the same book, and found it fascinating. My take on AAPL is that analysts are very inefficient in their knowledge of the company and the stock. Whether it's because Apple doesn't give them good information, or they don't follow it closely enough, I'm not sure, but it's true. I posted a chart a couple months ago showing the EPS surprises for the last few quarters for DELL, MSFT, and AAPL. The DELL and MSFT numbers were always close to .01 or .02. The AAPL numbers were always like .18 and -.22, etc. In other words, they were rarely on target. So I think it's entirely possible that the market hasn't already factored in a surprisingly good Q2, and that we'll see a very nice rise in price when (if) it comes about. rhet0ric

To: Michael D. Muzzie who wrote (10791)	4/3/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: Russ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Re: Random walk and fundamental data I haven't read the book. It's been on my "to read" list for years, along with Mackay (Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds). As far as the fundamentals being widely known and figured in the price, I don't think so. The quality of "research" coming out of Wall Street currently is abysmal. Denizens of SI boards (amateurs) do a better job of predicting financials than professional analysts, but most investors who follow the fundamentals at all are following the data coming from Wall Street. Someone who follows these boards probably has better info than most. Check out Mike Burke's latest newsletter. www3.techstocks.com Psychology also plays a big part too. I think right now we're in the latter stage of a bubble, and mass psychosis is a better explanation for some stocks than anything else. The Japanese have been losing money for years, they're finally able to move it abroad, so AOL and YHOO go up. -Russ