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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (1294)	4/3/1998 8:22:00 AM
From: sol dude	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2173

Henry, Two things, 1. JNJ has pulled out of two other partnerships recently. Mcneil division with fuse tech. amlyn and another that escapes me. It seems to me that they are restructuring their collaboration portfolio and only shooting for the blockbusters. They may have only seen a 200 to 400 million market potential. Thus not worth their time. Also they still own approx. 15% of the company, and have warrants to purchase 2mm more at 12ish. Posssibly the could squeeze amln and get better terms and ultimately takeover if new results better. 2. From what was originally published back in the summer both JNJ amlyn screwed up the testing by letting the candidates alter their insulin use. If so major mistake, then these more recent data should show efficacy. 3. Corr got approval for broad use in spite of the panel reccommendation sol dude

To: Henry Niman who wrote (1294)	4/3/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: David Bogdanoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2173

HN: I read the press announcements regarding the JNJ pullout and lack of pramlintide efficacy was certainly not given as a reason by anybody. The pullout after a large increased investment subsequent to the disappointing clinical trials results were known has all the earmarks of a corporate business strategy review, and is not consistent with lack of efficacy as the primary reason. There is no question that the clinical trial result were disappointing and therefore it is logical that Amylin would state that further clinical trial results would be needed to attract a partner. I understand this to mean that Amylin wants to attract a partner under the most favorable terms, i.e. not give the company away. Obviously, Amylin expects that future clinical data would be favorable and enable them to better negotiate. Please note that a non-statistically significant result in the primary indication for type II patients does not equate to "lack of efficacy". In this case it appears to mean poorly designed/analyzed clinical trials, a topic I have posted on previously. The type I results are statistically significant and that suggests efficacy. I would add that no one should have expected block-bluster results in this type of disease, especially when it is taken in combination with a powerful agent like insulin. The effects are subtle and easily swamped by insulin, and so extensive practical experience is needed in order to optimize clinical results. For those who are concerned about equity dilution, Amylin shareholder got a big reverse earning dilution when JNJ pulled out, and that should make the pain of a possible future equity dilution go away. David