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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amsterdam who wrote (1772)	4/3/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

How do you figure? The stock is $38 and the street consensus of $.75 is obviously low. $.85 is a better estimate so I value it at $38/.85 = 44.7x. 100% growth isn't sustainable long-term but AFCI has the management in place to give me great comfort in VERY FAST growth. Leading telecom stocks get premiums to their growth rates. AFCI will grow about 100% this quarter (revenues) and high double digits for the year. I think it is worth $50 based on this years earnings and gets you 30%/year past that annually. That said, execution must be monitored and you have to be aware of the extremes created by the hot money/momentum funds. I think mid-40's is a big probability so yes, I would buy it here for a trade. Mo' could take it to $50 this quarter. Absolutely no risk of AFCI doing less than $.15 this quarter.