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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (1433)	4/3/1998 2:38:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 22640

Hi Victor, I'm already in pretty deep with APR and MAY puts...hefty margin requirements on this stock. Considered selling more, but decided buying calls would be a better bet in this situation, just in case it broke 120 and triggered what I would guess is a ton of stop loss orders. Tough to say where it will trade but my confidence is generally maintained by the valuations as of the sell off. I haven't lost on a TBR naked put position ever (9 months) and figure I can always bump em if I run into trouble as I may with the APR 135P I sold. If we can get beyond the 3 or 4 concerns floating around right now, I would guess 128-140 for the month...but again, this stock has been known to make huge sudden moves in any direction. Ask all the questions you want...we'll try and answer. Haven't been able to get many answers on PT, but I know they recently bought a large position on Telesp I believe. Maybe someone else can help with this. Price correlation, not sure exactly how it works, but some mechanism seems to be in place, otherwise the arbitragers (sp?) would be cleaning up...maybe they do. Maybe someone else can help with this. I personally don't worry to much about Japan...instead I look at the low P/E and tremendous existing pent up potential. Couple that with the fact Brazil really has to sell it off this year, and the apparent huge interest in the largest Telecom in the southern hemisphere, and it spells more opportunity than I see in many US stocks. News can be hard to come by and slow in getting here though. The brazilian traders have a definite advantage in that respect. Valuations may be dragged down on the wireless firms by the low rates the new B band operators are proposing, if I understand correctly. Hope this gets you started, gotta move on for now. sf