SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/3/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Alex  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762
 
On a longer-term basis, however, a softer outlook for Japan's ratings and economy may present difficulties for U.S. Treasuries, some traders said.

It could spur Japan to create a stimulus package with teeth, something possibly funded in part by liquidation of Treasuries. And it might pressure the Federal Reserve to refrain from raising rates, potentially worsening the inflation outlook.

''I would suspect that at some point, you're going to have some probably inflationary situation where you try to re-ignite the world economies,'' Graham said.

biz.yahoo.com



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/3/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: marcos  Respond to of 116762
 
Aw, c'mon, Rose - draw us a picture .. no time for riddles just now -g- eom



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/3/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762
 
Well, based on the information posted here, I think it will be to their advantage to have a relatively heavy weighting of gold in their reserves (to lend credibility to the currency) and I think they may be happy to see that gold (and their euro reserves) repriced upward. I think they will also tacitly require those members who want to sell to exercise more discretion in their sales.

Besides, if they allow gold to move up to the $350 level or so, they'll be able to loan a lot more of it out as stressed miners fall all over themselves to hedge forward.

It would be a really bad move for them to allow this currency to be a dog.



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/3/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: Bill Grant  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116762
 
ole 49r,
Your use of the word "chilling" at the end of that post should be a tipoff and indicates that your reading is for the potential for some serious negative outcome. There are some parallels in Asia in the period leading up to World war II with Japan perceiving China as a developing economic threat and moving into Manchuria, with an evolving China today and an economically troubled Japan.
Regards,
Bill



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/4/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: CuriousGeorge  Respond to of 116762
 
Ole 49r - that's quite a good poser ... sent me to the schoolbooks....

Starting in 1927, and ending in the spring of '31, the Bank of France converted sterling to gold in a roundabout way; selling sterling to the market against purchases of forward sterling, then asking for gold as the forward contracts matured. On 8/24/31 the Labor goverment fell and on 9/21/31 the British pound went off gold, unable to get additional loans to defend the currency.

During the summer of '31 the Bank of France converted about $500 million dollars in deposits into gold. The deflationary pressure exerted by the reduction in U.S. reserves; and the appreciation of the dollar against sterling (and its associated currencies) was a major factor in undermining the U.S. banking system. Bank failures spread in a positive feedback process of falling prices, bankruptcies, and bank failures and continued until the Bank Holiday of 1933 and the depreciation of the dollar in the spring of '33.

(France did not act alone but in concert with the 'gold bloc' which was comprised of France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland).

As for Germany ... still searching.




To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/6/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: IngotWeTrust  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762
 
Senator Carter Glass, Former Sec. of the Treasury, moving in the US Senate, Feb 17, 1932, the Glass-Steagall bill, an emergency act to protect the American gold reserve said, and I quote: The Federal Reserve System has been threatened with raids upon its gold supply by foreign nations, notably by France. There has been that threatening situation, the conjecture being...that THAT country wanted to affect our situation with respect to reparations and to her indebtedness to the US... The officials of the Bank of France have simply outwitted the officials of the Federal Reserve System of this county.CLOSE QUOTE

What with the:
A)American moratorium for a yr on war debt payments owing to US Treasury,
B)Relending of $700-800 millions of SHORT-term American credit in Germany to save her from wretched default,
C)A cash loan at the same time to the Reichsbank,
D)a CASH loan to the Bank of England to save the gold honor of the pound sterling
E)IMMEDIATELY another to the British TREASURY for the same purpose--
with all of this, we put no less than a billion and a half of American gold credit into Europe during the summer of '31, thinking, thereby (our actions) to avert the disaster of a total financial collapse.

The specific intent of our loans to the BoE and to the British Treas. was to keep the mighty pound sterling on a gold basis...If the BoE should be unable to pay its notes in gold ON DEMAND, that would mean repudiation, inflation, a depreciate Brit currency no longer worth its face in gold....Thre was no stopping the run on the BoE. Its borrowing in New York was too desperate and only increased the alarm.
This American gold credit was like bundles of currency piled in the window of a doomed bank, to (visually) put the depositors off when it had the exact opposite effect--nobody believed it would be enough.

After the BoE had borrowed all the American gold credit it could get on its own signature, and 2 weeks after the Brit Treas. had itself borrowed $200 mil more in NY to save the pound, the BoE suspended gold payments. The gold value of the pound immediately declined one quarter and Gr. Brit. was on a paper money basis.

So now, with GBrit off the gold basis, German financially frozen (events adequately described by both Alex and Becker heretofore), Austria and Hungary bankrupt, and all war debt payments owing by Europe to the United States Treasury suspended for a year the situation simply (boiled down)to this:
<What Europe owed us she could either pay in depreciated fiat or need not pay at all. WHEREAS, ANYTHING we owed or might owe to Europe was payable in gold on demand, because we were still on a gold basis.

Here's an allegory to help clear all this up:
Suppose you have at your bank, 2 separate accounts.

One account, you owe the bank $1 Mil on a long-term promissory note, which you have undertaken to pay off gradually, with interest.

The second account is current. You have there, a credit, say of $50,000 dollars. This is your daily transaction/business account.

Now, supposing you go to your banker and say:
"I cannot pay the interest on that $1 MIL note. I am bankrupt if you make me pay." You throw yourself on the mercy of the bank. The bank can A) demand payment and sell you out, B)foreclose on your business, & take all your property. But the banker, being kindly and wise says:
"All right. These are hard times and you're not the only one having trouble. Let the interest payments go for one year, and let the note run."

Relieved, you say, "Wow, thanks, Mr. Banker." And then you have a sickening realization. You quickly add: But how about my current account in which I have $50K credit? What are you going to do with that?"

The kindly banker replies, "But of course!!! You MUST go on doing business. We will continue to treat THAT account as if you were solvent. Go on drawing your checks against it as before, and by all means, please keep your business going. All of this will work out in time. Don't you worry." Relieved, you leave and go home.

Tomorrow morning, upon arising and thinking about this all night, you march into your bank and say: "Mr. Banker, I'm afraid of your institution! I've been thinking about this all last night and this banks, it's just too loose with its credit. I'm afraid my current account is NOT safe here. Therefore, I am closing it out. Here is my check for $50,000 and I want it in gold, please."

As strange as the above set of facts is, having made this arrangement with you, the bank is obliged to pay you your credit balance of $50K, and pay it in gold, or end up confessing itself insolvent.

Between Europe and the US, this same preposterous situation exists (remember this article was written in '32). The facts however maybe somewhat obscured by its own magnitude (billions instead of thousands) and by the high language (spin) surrounding it.

Owing this country more than $10 Bil, less than half of it war debts,
the rest of it representing private and public borrowing from Am. investors and Am. banks--Europe nevertheless had very large credit balances here, payable on demand.

These balances had originated in various ways, most notably, the American banks had been putting deposits in Euro banks, especially Germany b/c the rate of interest was high. At the same time, Euro banks had been putting deposits in Am. banks for another, opposite reason. They wanted safety.

Euro exporters had been in the habit of leaving their profits on deposit in Am. banks, thinking the money was safer here than in Euro, esp the German exporters, who were quite right. Private Euro capitalists had been sending money to New York to be employed in short-term paper which they could sell at a moment's notice.
Some of the Euro cr. balances were simply the "untouched proceeds" of recent American loans.

(Continued next note:)



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/6/1998 2:28:00 AM
From: IngotWeTrust  Respond to of 116762
 
Part II

The BoE suspended gold payments for the reason, that, at the very last, as fast as the New York banks could write on their books, "Item, gold credit set aside for BoE on the security of her promissory notes", the European raiders ran to the BoE and took the actual gold away, in coin and in bullion (that means bars.)

The BoE in this case, was nothing more than a sieve. When the NY banks stopped writing that item down in their books, "Item, gold credit set aside for the BoE" then immediately the BoE stopped paying out her own gold to anybody. She decided, instead, to hoard what she had left, in her vaults and in gold credits on the books in NY.

What followed was a revelation in the ABNORMAL possibilities of int'l finance. Europe had always looked westward. It was a historic habit for nearly 450 years. There lay the great Am gold reserve, exposed and unprotected. And she had the keys to it. Keys we had unwittingly handed over.

True, we had enormous bank balances in Euro, but these were either frozen, as in Germany or now payable in fiat as in England. True, Euro owed the US Treas. over $250 MIL a year on account of her war debts, and that COULD HAVE BEEN a large offset for her demands on us for gold. But kindly US banks, we granted her a 1 yr moratorium on that promissory note.

True, we had immense investments in Euro, principally in Germany, but if we sold them, we couldn't get gold for them!

But German invesments HERE could be sold and converted into gold AT ONCE. Germany sold fiat marks in NY and got gold for them. Brit. sold fiat pounds in NY and got gold for them. The actual nitty gritty rubber-meets-the-road truth was this: A British holder of a pound sterling note could NOT go into his own BoE and get gold for it. BUT, he could send that very same pound sterling note to NY, sell it in the foreign exchange mkt and take the proceeds in gold.

If we refused the gold in ANY ONE SINGLE INSTANCE, we would be off the gold standard, and all the world knew it!

We were complacently prepared to lose gold. We were noblely thinking of Euro's problems and ways to help, plus trying to get England back onto the gold standard. We were willing to sell and lend what gold we could spare. BUT WE WERE NOT PREPARED FOR A RAID. AND A RAID IS WHAT WE GOT!

In 6 measly weeks, we lost nearly $750 mil actual gold coin and bullion. That was nearly 16% of what we had here, in our gold reserves. At that rate, we'd be bullionless in less than 1 year.

Not only was the raid motivated by Euro fear and panic, Euro wanted the gold for its own sake, while she could get it. The power of possessing it, the American Gold, was irresistible.

This strange phase of this raid was soon made clear by the daily figures on where said gold was actually going. England DID need it, there was no doubt about that. But England WASN'T getting it.
Of that 16% in 6 weeks, nearly half of it went to France alone.

France certainly didn't need it, she was already second only to the US in gold holdings, and relatively now possessed more than ourselves.
So why raid the US? That is still unknown.

In any case, all that France did with the gold was to hoard it. Since that war, France has built a treasure chamber unique in all the world.
Sure, every nation has vaults. You might blow the BoFrance away, but you'd not touch "her" gold.

The French Bank Gold Chamber is 2« acres big, 200' into the earth. Overhead is 40' of water, which they made by daming a subterranean river flowing beneath Paris. The next 50' overhead is solid rock.
6 Steel towers with revolving doors moved by electric engines bore through that rock. This passage of descent was floodable at a moments notice. If a signal of alarm is ever given, a cadre of defenders will disappear into these steel passageways, pull the water in after them, and live in the gold chamber until the threat passes. Complete with a kitchen, provisions enough for 2 or 3 artic expeditions, dishes, linen, beds, all the facilities exist for comfortable housekeeping.

Beginning on or about September 20th, every fast ship from NY for French ports carried gold on its way to this chamber. And who, for instance, could have foreseen the parallel campaign in Europ of rumor, innuendo and propaganda aginst the vlaue of Am. dollars???

In France, the campaign was both subtle and ingenious.

(Continued in next note.)



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/6/1998 3:04:00 AM
From: IngotWeTrust  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116762
 
Part III

In England the parallel (dis the US $) campaign was frank and brutal. As the BoFrance took gold from NY, rumors of an imminent financial collapse in the US spread from Paris throughout Europe as the French papers kept reminding folks how solid the gold backed French franc was.

Then came the news that President Hoover had called upon American bankers to MOBILIZE (<--- exact quote, folks. Anyone ever heard the word mobilize in reference to gold recently?????!) mobilize the credit resources of the American banking system against the tide of liquidation that was running in New York.

Instantly, upon the raw news, without waiting for details, the leaders of current opinion in France pronounced a sensational judgement. The US, they said, had entered the path to inflation. This was the beginning of the end of the gold backing of the dollar. Would the people of the world NOW believe them when they claimed the French Franc was the good gold money of the world?????

At this precise time of negative spin and 3" high French and Gr. Brit headlines advising of the tenuous status of the US $, the premier of France decided he HAD to pay a visit to the US, to examine the problems of the world and explore all solutions.

What did he really come to get in behalf of France? Besides our gold?
1) to have US forgive France her war debts. All of them.
2) US to save the "Young Plan"--the dead and presumed buried--plan where France was in premier position of being paid by Germany for all the war wrongs before England or America received any of their German reparations.
3) to have Hoover stick to his 1 year war debt moratorium, not extend it.

While same premier was on the high seas high-tailing it for Hoover's White House, the NY banking community and all of the US citizens were stunned by the news that:
The Bank of France had served AN ULTIMATUM on the American banking system!

She would NOT leave her credit balances in NY any longer unless we paid her more than 1«% she was currently getting. If we didn't comply, she'd yank her credit balances, all $600 MIL of them. Remember the business checking account illustration in Part I?

Besides tourist dollars spent in France that were on the kept on French books as gold credits, the balance of the $600 Mil was American Money loaned to Germany to pay German reparations to France!
The Germans took our gold backed monies, transferred it by means of ledger entries to France ON AMERICAN BANKS' BOOKS, and the French left it here to earn that measly 1«% interest.

However, France knows she can only do this because her payments to the US Treasury have been suspended courtesy of benevolent Uncle Hoover, for one year.

The French franc assuredly would be the premier gold money and govern the world of finance if she could force us off the gold standard.

What did Wall Street do? What did Hoover decide? Will we ever hear from the French premier again?

END OF EXCERPTS.

****************************
COMMENTARY:
Yes, there is more.
And yes, there is an EU. It traded on Globex this very evening, in point of fact.

I repeat the chilling excerpt from the Warburg Director of Foreign Exchange Yorke which yanked me out of academic contemplations
and into the icy shower of global 1998 gold vs. US$ vs. EU reality:

"The whole EMU project is driven by law; the basis for any decision (ECB's gold backing of EU) must be the Maastricht Treaty."
Germany has 28.9% of the vote, (could it be they have more Au than France???)
France 21.8%
Italy 20.3%

Thus,Germany and France together have a majority and will most likely make this decision in conjunction with Italy."

At least 10% of reserves (will be in gold) which appears to be mkt consensus, but the risks are on the upside, that is to say: it is more likely to be 30% than 0% of total reserves.

Why? Because Germany, France & Italy will effectively make the decision & they have the highest proportion of Au to total reserves of any European country."


FOLLOW THE GOLD
FOLLOW THE VOTE
FOLLOW THE GOLD "MOBILIZATIONS"
FOLLOW THE DOLLAR'S DEMISE


Thank You.



To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (9251)4/27/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116762
 
Thanks for another Gold Nugget 9er. Yes the thought of a ressurected Reich is CHILLING and why I sign my posts off with pray a lot.

XAU Update: We are completing wave 1 down from the peak today. I would expect a completed pattern to bring us down the the 84 area for a double bottom and make a slight overthrow of the 200 dma to bring in the bears to short and fuel the blow-off coming.

iqc.com

Great Time to be a contrarian.
1. American Economy is Invincible - NOT
2. Japan is going down the tubes - NOT
(watch for a key resignation to signal the bottom (Hashimoto?) Richard Nixon resigned at the bottom of the 73-4 bear.
3. Gold is dead - NOT.
4. The market only goes higher - NOT.
5. The EURO will fail - NOT.
6. The dollar is almighty and will go much higher - NOT.
7. God is dead. (He told me this morning the rumours of his demise have been quite exaggerated -g-)

God bless you 9er and keep us in those golden nuggets of wisdom.
bobby b.