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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Buckwheat who wrote (30962)	4/3/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572209

I believe AMD will be acquired or controlled by NEC,IBM,FUJITSU in descending order of likelihood for the following reasons: 1) The Change in Control reported in Item 6(e) of Schedule 14A of Regulation 14A due to acquisition by any person of beneficiary ownership of more than 20% of the combined voting power of the Company's then outstanding securities. The Schedule 14A guarantees a golden parachute for AMD execs. 2) NEC owns 49% of Japanese PC market using its proprietary OS and processor. Its UNIX workstations & servers have been running on its flavor of UNIX, NECOS until now. NEC said that it would drop its own UNIX OS for Window NT which will run on an x86 compatible processor, beginning in 2H98. Similarly, NEC has wanted to migrate its PC to the Japanese Window OS by MSFT. 3) NEC owns 49% of Packard Bell (PB) of which Group Bull of France has 11% stake. It would simplify NEC operations and R&D if NEC standardize on an x86 compatible chip across the board. 4) There is no overlap in PLD, CPLD w/ AMD's vantis 5) There is little overlap w/ AMD's Communications ASIC group 6) There is little overlap in low power 1.8v Flash memory. Neither AMD nor NEC has multi-level Flash. 7) Marvin, AMD CFO, must have anticipated that there might no be a job as a CFO for him if a takeover materializes, joined PB as a CFO before PB's IPO. 8) Fujitsu has purchased 3 MM AMD shares, and is required to purchase an additional 1.5 MM shares over the next few years, for a total not to exceed $100 MM [pg. 38 of 97 annual report 9) IBM with its fab prowess and cash could easily ensure an ample supply of an x86 alternative for its own PC productions and as a merchant supplier to others [a chance to redeem its mistake for outsourcing the up design to Intel's 8086]. IBM would want a hedge for the market share losing Power PC. 10) INM just announced it would collaborate w/ SUN on Java OS. K6 can serve as a low cost Java machine [a chance to redeem its mistake of outsourcing the DOS OS to MSFT, which it could have developed itself]. 10) AMD needs cash to pay for interest expense, operating expenses. 11) IDT panel of experts predicted that it's a lock that NEC would acquire NEC in 98. Their predictions are pretty good historically. In the final analysis, I believe AMD will announce a major OEM investor of 20% of the co. This could pave the way for an eventual buyout. Why is 20% initially ? Because a > 20% is deemed a change of control.