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To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (10830)	4/3/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Eric Yang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Roy...current analyst consensus estimate has Q2 at 15 cents per share. If Apple earns 50 mil that would be about 38 cents per share on a diluted basis. How do you think AAPL will react if earnings comes in at 253% of consensus estimate? Fred Anderson said not to expect sequential increase in revenue or sequential improvements in earnings. That means not to EXPECT revenue better than 1.578 bil, and earnings better than 47 mil. However, it does not mean that it will not happen...just not to expect it. He also said that margin could remain flat at 22% (22.4% to be exact) and could be sustained for the next few quarters. Even with some fairly conservative numbers I'm getting around 46 mil in profit or 33 cents per share. Surprisingly high I know... This is based on 1450 mil revenue, 23% margin, 293 mil cost, 6.4 mil interest, 140 mil shares on diluted basis. Any of these number seem particularly optimistic? If we take everything Fred Anderson says on face value...meaning 22.4% margin, 300 mil cost, then earnings will have to come in at about 1410 mil for us to make the consensus estimate of 15 cents per share on a diluted basis. Eric

To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (10830)	4/3/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Respond to of 213177

Roy, Welcome to the board. One thing all of us have to know is the money managers who have real power to drive the future price up or down don't really share with our high expectations here. They expect $0.15 net for Q2. Therefore, if any number beyond that will have good reaction. The following is my expectation from analysts' reactions: (1) If net < -$0.20 -> Significantly negative, price: $20 - $23; (2) If -$0.20 < net < $0.0 -> Moderately negative impact, price: $23 - $25; (3) If $0.0 < net < $0.15 -> Slightly negative, price: $25 - $27; (4) If $0.15 < net < $0.20 -> Slightly positive, price: $26 - $29; (5) If $0.20 < net < $0.25 -> Moderately positive, price: $28 - $30; (6) If $0.26 < net < $0.35 -> Significantly positive, price: $30 - $33; (7) If $0.35 < net < $0.50 -> Surprisingly positive, price: $33 - $35; (8) If $0.50 < net -> Shockingly positive, price: $35+; Besides the above figures, if the revenue is greater than 1.6b, then it would break the historical pattern and will be a big plus towards stock price. Just my own estimates. Have a great weekend to all. Phil