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To: Willing2 who wrote (14043)	4/4/1998 5:41:00 AM
From: Mr Logic	Respond to of 31646

Willing2, we agree - most stuff will just keep on going, maybe with just a reset, and there will be workarounds for some semi-dumb equipment. These will typically be manual workarounds, manual restarts etc.. If I was setting up as a manual remediation company (hmmm, there's an idea) to have a company with a very short lifespan starting 1/1/2000, I could do a lot with a bespoke editor/debugger, an eprom writer and a box of old eproms. Some plant will just not work, period, unless you get into the code. The dangerous stuff is when you move up a level, to the 'SC' bit of SCADA. The vast majority of the newer stuff will probably be OK (you may need a fix from the supplier <'00), but older, home-grown systems will present problems. You wouldn't let your heating system run without a thermostat (one input, one output) and you would be foolish to run any piece of complex plant with no control to stop it running too hot, cold, fast, slow etc.. You also would be at massive risk if a problem occured that could result in death or injury, even with a manual workaround. For these systems I am sure will 90% be fixed, not expedited. The 'DA' side is probably not so critical, and can be fixed later. You just have to run blind for a while. Reminds me of a story... my brother was working on a safety case for a large oil installation - he had to test out (on paper) their manual procedures in case of systems failure. He pointed out that for one case, yes they did have a manual procedure, but it would require a worker to press the same button every 0.2 seconds for up to six hours! Things will carry on. The sort of job I would relish is would be walking into a large, halted factory on Jan 1 and being told "just fix it".

To: Willing2 who wrote (14043)	4/4/1998 2:40:00 PM
From: Stuart Schreiber	Respond to of 31646

Thank you for one of the most outstanding posts I've read since this thread's inception. Concise, well written, and loaded with information. Looking forward to more! Stu

To: Willing2 who wrote (14043)	4/4/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: jwk	Respond to of 31646

> The disruption of production; the effect on workers (unpaid time off, etc); the increase in waste (out of spec product); the inability to meet production quotas ............ Yes, Our 70 mph economy will be jerked back to 55 mph overnight, but it won't be stopped. We'll still get there. Be careful you don't underestimate the inventiveness and creativity of the American worker. Their ability to rally to the challenge and "find a way" to keep things working is what is going to allow us all to get through the year 2000 and into 2001. <<<< I certainly hope and pray you are correct in your assumptions about how individuals will respond and react to these "disruptions". While I hope for the best, I fear that the added stress created by y2k glitches will bring out the worst in many. Will there be sporadic and inconvenient power outages in major population centers during the coldest and darkest time of the year? Proably. Will people miss paychecks and fall behind in rent and mortgage payments? Probably. Will these and numerous other stressors bring out the best or worst in us? I hope the former and fear the latter. All in all it will probably be no worse than the situations which occured on the decks of the Titanic when the unthinkable happened to the unsinkable. Some will be heroes, many will not.

To: Willing2 who wrote (14043)	4/4/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: Karl Drobnic	Respond to of 31646

Willing2: Your reminder to not underestimate the inventiveness of workers gets little credit in the media, but I agree. I have long been impressed with the ability of skilled and semi-skilled workers to find solutions to vexing technological problems. Patches to problems come with risks - we may have to loosen up safety standards and be willing to accept a narrowed band of liability - but you only need to observe electric utility employees during an ice storm to understand the level of commitment and ingenuity that surfaces during a real crises. Right now, we're guessing where the problems will appear. When we know, a whole new set of solutions will rise, temporary probably, but most likely surprising in their scope and effectiveness.