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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (18520)	4/3/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Threaders, Can we gather anything from looking at AMAT's decade chart and previous downturns. Have we alread experienced the downturn from previos highs? chart5.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&site=researchmag&onbad=cobrandsymb&symb=amat&time=13&uf=1024&sid=614&sec=c&xyz=36036125&s=31979 Paul V.

To: Paul V. who wrote (18520)	4/3/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: Norm Tock	Respond to of 70976

Paul, Remembering what was said earlier this year during a conference call - "the projected growth will be less this year" - I sold my position in AMAT today for the first time in 3 years. I am now on the outside looking in! <<< The TA of AMAT, having broken its triple top at $38 with $39 1/2 yesterday has a probability for profitability, according to DW, at 87.9%, with an average gain of $28.7 over 6.8 months. >>> I think you might be right, but I felt that right now the downside risk is higher than the upside probability. I would be a buyer again in the low to mid 30's. If the support line is reached around $34.00 as you say then I will be back in. I am usually not a trader, but as a retiree I am becoming one. I am not about to sit on the sidelines with CD's - What - and miss the excitement? Regards to GM and Teri and where is Kumar?

To: Paul V. who wrote (18520)	4/4/1998 3:02:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

PV, It takes consumers spending money and buying end products, that moves the chip industry. IF you consider that the Asian consumer just took it in the shorts with currency devaluations (relative to US $$) then it is fairly safe to assume that there won't be much consumer buying from many Asian countries/consumers. I'm a believer that market saturation exists for many high tech consumer products from numerous (and very competitive)computer/technology manufacturers. Anyone remember when digital watches were the rage, and calculators, CD players cell phones, etc. They are now commodity products, cheap and readily available, these markets are highly saturated because nearly everyone who needs/wants the product has what they need or can afford. At this point in time there is nothing "substantial" as a new product that will act as the catalyst/fuel for fueling the chip engine to higher levels, for now. Hopefully that "hot", new, "must have" product is in development and close to release to the consumer market and once it gains popularity the chip industry will ramp up to meet the consumer demand. I'm trying to think of something that I "need" that requires chips in it, can't think of a thing, guess it's consumers like me that are causing this downturn! Think about it! Just my opinion, BB