To: Valueman who wrote (9657 ) 4/4/1998 6:28:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
Valueman, New Paradigm: = hugely effective developments over the past 20 years and comparisons with 1929. 747s computers telephones medical globalisation television The Web English/American lingua franca war psychology demise more people alive than dead [slight exaggeration only] fewer children per person oil exploration - reserves, coal, gas, nuclear, photovoltaics optical fibre lasers DVD/CDROM CDMA/Globalstar gene chip arrays interbreeding/migration communism decline/individualism increase dental floss lead poison reduction = more brains 6 billions kilograms of brains alive instead of 2 billion in 1929 [same point as more alive than dead really] urbanisation for most people compared with digging dirt in 1929 body piercing calculators down to $10 from $1000 Windows 98 Eudora Pro GPS The list goes on and on and on. To me that means rapid and increasing wealth - people can buy great stuff which they can use to make greater stuff. So the cost of doing anything will continue to drop rapidly [which allows Alan Greenspan, Japan etc to keep rolling the presses while happily watching no inflation]. So Qualcomm, Ford, Boeing, BP Oil, Sony, Affymetrix, Techniclone and all can go on producing more, with less, while making increased profit. 6 billion people all hunting the most valuable ecological niche for themselves. Some will fail, some will kill themselves, some will lie in the sun and be happy, some will seek maximum financial returns for their efforts. To me it all adds up to the new paradigm. Never before seen in human history. Or turtle, dinosaur or chimpanzee history either. Just a leap into the wild blue yonder. Pessimists think this scary. Optimists see opportunity. So far, for a million years, the optimists have been right, give or take a few genocides, plagues and famines on the way. Sure, there has always been progress - but the industrial revolution was like a slow wander into oil, steel, gears and looms compared with the mad, impossibly complex developments now underway. Twenty years now the USA has been in the forefront of developments with Japan leaping into the fray and succeeding wildly after being a bombed out catastrophe. China now is emerging from the 19th century statism disaster. Selling me amazing stuff for cheap. They'll soon be raising their prices as Chinese start to feel better off! New paradigm rulz ok. Japan/Nikkei a real deal. Dow 16000 Feb 2002 Mqurice