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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (10698)	4/3/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: John Sikora	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Rick, FWIW I am of the belief that there will be increased awareness for the next couple of years. The phrase MM coined that "all pigs shall fly" might not quite turn out to be true in the end...Having said that Y2k has been one helluva investment opportunity if one bought the body shops a year ago :)...400% gains have been common...Service providers will probably outperform right on out to the millenium with their ability to derive post y2k work through their initial offerings. The tool vendors are a little harder to call. I've chosen SEEC and CRYSF as my vehicles for growth in that area. Both could see a fair amount of euro conversion work post y2k...It's been a wonderful year thus far and for certain issues there is plenty more to come... john

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (10698)	4/4/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13949

...will pigs fly? Here's some Monday Morning Quarterbacking... It seems investors fall into two types: institutions and everyone else. The institutions look at SEC filings, analyst reports, contract numbers, etc. When they don't like what they see, they bail. A couple of years ago when these institutions first invested in Y2K stocks, growth was assured. The only question was for how long. Those companies unlucky enough not to continue growth have been slapped silly. Meanwhile, the "rest of us" keep jumping around looking for the next hot buy. We know it's a big problem and moonshots are possible, so we look to get in at the apparent bottom. That's why penny stocks like TPII, VXTK, AGCR and TSIM have turned white hot. Are these flying pigs? Considering they all have virtually no revenues, I think so. I think the only problem here is that although we all knew pigs would fly, we never thought that elephants would sink. (gg) - Jeff

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (10698)	4/4/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: R. Bond	Respond to of 13949

>>People would be talking at dinner......<< Shame you weren't with me last night. To my surprise another person at the table was Y2K aware. He raised the subject. Thanked me for confirming it to his wife. Another turned very fearful concerning her employee pension plan and asked me what to do. I saw fear in her eyes. People at other tables were listening in. Can you name another current issue that might spark similar responses? I don't think it's a dead issue. Cheers, Bond

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (10698)	4/4/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Rick - Re. : What do you all think? My question is, will pigs fly? The key is earnings. Earnings or lack of earnings is what matters. Another problem for this sector is the late realization of the year 2000 problem by companies and govt. Most people brushed it aside. Now that they realize, everyone has a short time frame. More companies are springing up with y2k solutions. Their tools are in various stages of testing and proven for y2k fix. Client companies have to figure out how to meet their deadline: using tools, or outsourcing, or factories/code packaging, etc. Some managers of BIG companies appointed to lead the y2k fix do not understand or trust proposals from their computer departments. They tend to go straight to outsourcing. (The evil of financial accounting - to select a low cost approach!) Management of some companies is not even ready to handle the sales and support issues. Peritus blamed sales integration problem. What excuse VIAS will give? Big confusion! Only about 6 quarters are left (till 2Q99 results) to show what these companies are worth now and after year 2000. This is the key question that SYNT and CBSL with limited exposure to y2k are benefiting. IMRS is in transition. This thread can figure out the rest. (example: SPNSF, CRYSF, ACLY, SEEC, etc.) What Mad Monk predicted is true: everyone will talk about year 2000. Yes, people talk (technical, non-technical, big or small companies, TV news, CNBC, Federal and State govt., etc.) Pigs will not fly: Pig flying was over before September 1997. Contract announcement does not have the same effect now as it did before Sep 97. Look at ALYD. No movement after two announcements. Safe to assume its move is awaiting earnings. Just because people talk, it does not mean they will buy the stocks. Common people have common sense! The first question they ask is "What happens after year 2000?" Most volume is traded by the street (traders, speculators, shorts, etc.), so the price is influenced heavily by big money, not by individual investors (Silicon investors included). Value-oriented investors won't touch y2k stocks at these ratios. (2) The enormous Year 2000 budget is true: Fortune 500 companies are spending. At least 100-200Million US$ have been allocated. Most have started. Some are starting now. (Re.: SEC requirements etc.) Fallacy: Just because the budget is huge, not all y2k companies will get a share of it. Competition is fierce. How many pilot test runs a company can afford? The question is which company shows earnings TODAY and has potential to grow EARNINGS AFTER YEAR 2000. Ram