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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nycnpbbkr who wrote (16330)4/4/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: FJB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
NYCNPBBKR,

RE:Rumor has it that Cymer is going to beat earnings estimates this report but will warn on the next 2 quarter's earnings.

That sounds about right and they almost said as much in the last CC:
At the recent ISF conference that SEMI hosted in Monterey, California, most experts agreed that these and other economic factors would affect demand levels, slowing capacity purchases and delaying construction of new factories for semiconductor production. anticipated result was a slowdown in the growth of the overall equipment industry. Although this impact will be lesser on today's most advanced equipment like deep-UV equipment and lasers, it will still have an impact. Like the rest of the industry, these issues cloud our visibility. What is clear is that it will likely have a near-term impact on demand for deep-UV lithography tools that rely on Cymer's advanced laser system. Already, many of the worlds leading lithography suppliers, all of which are Cymer's customers, indicate that earlier forecasts are now under revision. This is due to these changing market conditions, as well as shifts in market share among those suppliers of lithography tools themselves. As a result, we anticipate a reduction in our revenues by 10 to 15 percent in the first quarter compared to fourth quarter levels. We plan to closely monitor the situation going forward, consulting with customers to ensure their inventory levels of lasers are in line with the current demand scenario.

The analysts must have taken this to heart and that is why they are predicting about $0.10 a Q for the year. Are you expecting even lower numbers?

Bob



To: nycnpbbkr who wrote (16330)4/4/1998 2:04:00 AM
From: David Fleming  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 25960
 
I've been following Cymer and lurking around this thread for quite some time now. I'm long 1k at $28 - should have averaged down but didn't - and finally, my major sphincters are beginning to relax, my fingernails are growing back, my wife is sleeping with me again and I'm beginning to see a speck of light at the end of the tunnel. I thought I would share my thoughts on what may have caused the nice rise in price this week. Mind you, this is purely speculation and based on absolutely nothing other than gut and wishful thinking...

It seems to me that Cymer management has devised a very shrewd plan for getting the stock price back to where it belongs. Last quarter they told analysts to expect a 10 to 15 cent decline in eps for this quarter and most analysts adjusted their estimates for worst case (the consensus is 9 cents I think). I suspect that they (Cymer management) exaggerated things a bit and knew full well that earnings would be no where near this bad. So, knowing that they are going to blow estimates away, they begin buying back stock - lots of it - to build momentum, shake out Friggenstein and his bunch and to get the price up to $25-27 before the 23rd (barring a major market correction). Then come the 23rd they announce 14 cents and POW we break $30 and are closer to where we should be. Much closer than we would have been had they done nothing. Far fetched? Probably. But wouldn't it be nice to be sitting above $30 this time next month?

David