Re: I think I will pass on Orckit
I think I will pass on Orckit because of the patent infringement liability. The following article says that xDSL will not be available to 40 percent of U.S. households because of copper wire degradation. How can xDSL be the wave of the future if virtually half of the United States market is excluded?
Jim,
Do you believe every story you read, of course not!
I read thousands of ADSL stories, at one point I used to write the authors with corrections, this was before the explosion of news stories.
See bottom of post for an author who knows ADSL.
Until a few months ago, the only fat pipes that seemed to have a reasonable chance of succeeding were cable television lines, converted to convey data through cable modems. Recently, however, three computer giants--Compaq Computer, Intel and Microsoft--threw their considerable weight behind the only real competitor to cable modems. The fat-pipes sweepstakes has become a bona fide race.
Until a few months ago! Give us a break, Trials have been on going around the world since 1993. State side GTE was the early leader in trials, a small trial in Richardson, Texas (suburb of Dallas) in 1996, and the public could check out ADSL too. With Modems being installed at ProTech Bookstore, a public Library, and Circuit City. I personally tested them at the first two places.
Then the GTE/MSFT trials in Redmond, Wash. now up to about 2000 users have shown that out of the few thousand lines deployed, only a couple of lines were incapable of handling ADSL.
ADSL was well received by Trial participants, in a Press Conference held by GTE at Network Interop in Las Vegas last year GTE stated that the basis conscience of trial participants was. If you want to take this modem from me, you'll have to pry it from my cold dead fingers. I and a few SI Amati members attended this Press Conference.
This past January the computer colossi announced that they were joining with the large regional telephone companies in the U.S. to form a consortium dedicated to hastening the availability of hardware and software for a technology known as asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL). At data rates that are expected to range from about 400 kilobits per second for home users to 1.5 megabits per second for commercial clients, ADSL will be slower than cable-based data services, which offer rates up to 10 megabits per second. But ADSL is a considerable improvement over today's telephone modem, which has data rates below about 50 kilobits per second.
Dedicated to hastening! Yea Right how did they hasten it, by slowing a technology down!
This neat technical picture omits a number of major problems, however. Because the signal degrades as it travels over the copper wires, the length of telephone line over which an ADSL connection can be established is limited. Specifically, the line known as the local loop, which connects a home with a telephone company's central office, cannot exceed a length of three to eight kilometers, depending on the quality of the line and the desired data rate. In addition, the line must consist of copper wires all the way to the home. Rough estimates are that these limitations exclude 40 percent of U.S. homes.
Duh! What signal doesn't degrade over distance? And what kind of statement is:
In addition, the line must consist of copper wires all the way to the home.
Who is this guy???
Rough Estimates?
Moreover, if the service becomes as popular as some projections suggest, local telephone central offices could become rather crowded. Each ADSL connection requires a modem at both ends. These modems currently cost several hundred dollars, and the need to install thousands of them in a central office could present a storage problem. The problem would be mitigated, presumably in the near future, when it becomes possible to put an entire ADSL modem on one integrated circuit. Another challenge to be surmounted involves devices called loading coils, which have been installed on lines to improve the voice signal. Unfortunately, they also block the ADSL signal. "It's not going to be easy to turn ADSL into a competitive product," comments Jay A. Rolls, director of multimedia technology for cable giant Cox Communications.
One of the biggest problems of all, Rolls adds, may be economic. Many telephone companies now make handsome profits leasing T1 lines, which cost anywhere from $350 to $1,000 a month or more and offer data rates of 1.544 megabits per second. With ADSL, however, a company will be able to get comparable capacity with one or two high-end lines--and at a cost well below $200 per month.
When that happens, why would anyone want a T1 line? For one, T1 lines do not have the length limitations of ADSL, notes Greg Gum, who is in charge of the country's largest ADSL trial, at the regional telephone company U S West. In addition, Gum says, many business users need capacity far in excess of even T1 rates, and such capacity would be impractical to implement with ADSL. Finally, that "A" in ADSL, standing for asymmetric, reflects the fact that a user can receive data at high rates but can send only at much lower ones. "I think it's a bit strong to say, 'There goes the T1 market,'" says Joseph Bartlett, who studies the Internet for the Yankee Group, a market analysis firm.
Moreover, if the service becomes as popular
Give us a break, that's the funniest statement I've heard in a long time!
These modems currently cost several hundred dollars, and the need to install thousands of them in a central office
The modem price is down to $250 a piece total, for a modem on each end $500. But this is not the case. On the Company Office end they use a DSLAM, a DSL Mutiplexer. Basically a rack containing DSL Modems. But each card can currently handle two subscribers, with a capability of handling 4 subscribers only a few months down the road.
This is one Technology that hits the market at the consumer price level, without having to be sold to Million dollar companies first, in order to bring the price down.
Another challenge to be surmounted involves devices called loading coils, which have been installed on lines to improve the voice signal. Unfortunately, they also block the ADSL signal. "It's not going to be easy to turn ADSL into a competitive product," comments Jay A. Rolls, director of multimedia technology for cable giant Cox Communications
Getting info from a cable Guy, a competing tech, I'm sure they will tout up DSL!
True the main inhibitor to DSL on POTS (Plain Old Telephone System) is the loading coils.
Loading coils start at 18,000ft, a little ofer 3 miles. 80% or to be fair it's in the upper 70% of homes are with in 18,000ft of the Company Office.
True we only have a couple of hundred million POTS lines in the US, but there are approx. 750 million in the world, a HUGE market.
US WEST may say they have the largest Trial in the US, but GTE currently has more trial users, and US WEST has The worst lines of any Telco in the US.
In addition, Gum says, many business users need capacity far in excess of even T1 rates, and such capacity would be impractical to implement with ADSL.
Not impractical, ADSL runs at 8Mbps, this speed can be reached out to about 6000 ft or a little over a mile. At 12,000ft your still at 6 Mbps. out to 18,000ft at 1.5. And Amati can run speeds of 10Mbs out to 5000ft.
Finally, that "A" in ADSL, standing for asymmetric, reflects the fact that a user can receive data at high rates but can send only at much lower ones. "I think it's a bit strong to say, 'There goes the T1 market,'" says Joseph Bartlett, who studies the Internet for the Yankee Group, a market analysis firm.
Finally a statement I can agree with. Also at 8Mbs, the up stream is 640Kbs.
As to the pricing statement made, The price : speed will come down as the technology is deployed and competition from Cable Modems, LMDS and Satellite come into play.
Now to explain why what we hear about is ADSL at 1.5 Mbps. This is called ADSL Lite, G. Lite, or Splitterless ADSL.
Vendors developed this because our TELCO's and RBOCs are to Freaking Cheap to want to deploy the real stuff. To have full blown ADSL the TELCO's would have to roll a truck to the subscribers home to install a POTS splitter. In full blown ADSL a POTS splitter, splits the Home or Business telephone wire from the connection going to the computer outside the home. This is because you have un-terminated phone jacks in your home, and Telephone wires run next to Electrical wiring, or pass next to your Air Conditioning wiring or a host of other interferes, that cause NEXT (see WHY ADSL)
Full Blown ADSL will be deployed eventually, when we need more than 1.5 Mbps of bandwidth, which in my estimation won't be too far down the road.
Of course VDSL pumping 52Mbps out to one mile will be coming, all that is needed is for the TELCO's to run fiber to a central DSLAM which can pump this speed to users in a one mile radius around the DSLAM.
This is cheap in comparison to having to run Fiber To The Curb (FTTC) to everyone who requires it.
Think of that one mile radius as a spider web, imagine the cost of running fiber to every connection!
With VDSL they can run a single strand to a DSLAM and save a ton. It will happen! Because VDSL can pump multiple channels of HDTV to your home and still give you lots of bandwidth for your NET connection, and as with ADSL, you can still use the Telephone at the same time on the same small Copper-Twisted Pair that you currently use. Do the TELCO's want to become your Cable TV Supplier, you bet they do! But they better get up off their Cheap Tired Ass soon.
If you want factual reporting on ADSL I suggest you read articles by Loring Wirbel
Here are 67 stories by Loring.
Go to techweb.com do an advanced search on ADSL , Author Loring . I'd post the searched URL, except it will make this post to wide on the screen.
I think I will pass on Orckit because of the patent infringement liability.
Jim , this is only MHO, and I would not see it as a major concern anyway. Many manufactures said they would not license, only to come around.
The run up in price in Orckit, should Compaq announce a buyout,
would make for a nice profit. If there is no buyout a long term
investment in ORCTF is a great investment also.....
Two years ago there were only 3 major players in ADSL, Amati, Westell
and PairGain. Today I can't keep up with them all.
Ask for an opinion on ADSL's future on the Amati thread. The Thread
continues, even though Amati was bought out, because we have a collective of dependable & knowledgable people whom we can depend on for valuable information in the Bandwidth / Networking Arena.
I would also take a large position in Texas Instruments also.
TI will have a nice run in the next two months, IMHO.
Though TI is an EXCELLENT Long Term Investment.
JW@KSC |
