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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacques Tootight who wrote (2032)	4/4/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: nnillionaire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

RC, Your post is a classic contrarian indicator...i.e. old valuations don't hold...new market environment...good times will never end. It's all there. Hummm. Time to tighten up the stops. Good Investing.

To: Jacques Tootight who wrote (2032)	4/4/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: Richard Coke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Right on RC....I started saving for retirement 3 yrs ago put my wife to work and invested in IRA's for both of us...I'm 52 and see the handwriting real plain...Good ole SS will be bankrupt or non exisitant before I get to it. We have invested $15,000 total and current portfolio is $60,000 and climbing daily. Real simple just buy name brand for retirement (The big 3 or 4 INTC< MSFT< LU< and maybe IBM). Then mess around with the others for beer money.... My wife wanted a newer car last year. I had $3500 so I started looking around and wow MSFT had issued some BS statement about not using CTXS anymore..right.. so I bought all I could at $16 then margined out the rest and 6 weeks later bought her a $7000 Honda.. Now LU is helping me buy the house next door...vacation rental..I see a long and rosy future and I love the pull backs (buying opertunities)...happy investing....Richard Coke...RC

To: Jacques Tootight who wrote (2032)	4/5/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

R.C. you got a little bit emotional with me in your post, so I'll let you know why I believe the notion of things being over and under valued is not antiquated. The fact is that no one in this market has perfect information. That inherently means that people may bid up a stock past its market equilibrium. To make it plainer, demand outstrips supply, so there is pressure that drives the stock price higher. Well inevitably that upward pressure eventually exhausts itself and the market tries to reassert itself. That is when the selling begins because people realize the upside potential in the near term has all but dried up. This creates downward pressure on the price. The end result is the market seesaws up and down and up and down. That is what we call the business cycle. Some theorists like to think that information has become more perfect with the advent of the Internet and technology. These economists believe that the business cycles will be less severe. Other theorists, namely myself, believe that just the opposite will occur. As more people get hold of more supposedly perfect information, something strange happens. People begin to react too quickly. They believe that with their superior knowledge they can more correctly predict the market. What happens is that the market begins to gyrate unpredictably. Large selloffs are followed by quick recoveries. The market is less predictable, but the speed of its ocillation becomes blinding. The market is a rubber band. It has been pulled away from you right now, but I promise it will snap back. If you are ready, you can get out of the way so it won't hurt.

To: Jacques Tootight who wrote (2032)	4/6/1998 6:42:00 PM
From: qdog	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 21876

I challenge you to find find something thats NOT overvalued right now using the traditional measurements for value. I'll bet chances are pretty good they will be companies not many of us are interested in buying. No challenge. You are correct sir, everything is overvalued. I own 11 stocks right now and follow a dozen others. Almost without exception people on the msg boards that follow them are screaming "overvalued". And you know what, they've been saying it for three or four years now. We are simply going to have to adjust our concept of value. This bull is just NOT going to stop running. In spite of the chicken littles out there the sky is NOT going to fall. Sure we'll see some pull backs like last fall but unless World War III breaks out they won't last long. If Slick Willie and the Far East couldn't make the market crash nothing short of a major war will. Hmmm.... You know I sold in 87 around May and June becasue of this very attitude. Might be time to do so again. Companies that can't sustain earnings growth to match there stock valuation will fall back to Earth!! Riddle me this, what war was waging in 1929 or 1987?? Market actually did quite well during WWII and Viet Nam? Even the Cold War did well, so what does war have to do with it?? SKY falling, buy SKY!! Am I bullish, you bet your sweet bippie. As long as this economy is left alone to perform the way it has we'll be just fine. Money is pouring into the market and its not going to stop. Why? 1. More and more companies are getting out of the pension business and turning their retirement plans into 401k plans. New ones are starting all the time in small companies. Most only have mutual funds to choose from. 2. An army of baby boomers like me are figuring out we don't have enough money saved for that veranda in the sun and are saving very aggressively. 3. Generation X feels they have no hope to see a nickel from Social Security and are saving like no other twentysomething generation before them. 4. Money from troubled economies is coming into the country looking for a safe haven. The economy will have many factors tugging at it that will be it's natural process of cycles. Dollar rise is a concern, as it eats into companies competitive advantage with it's produicts costing hihger in overseas markets. Whether you care to agre, but this economy is fueled by easying regulation of the export of technology due to the end of the Cold War and a very weak dollar. Money from troubled economies, looking for a safe haven?? What happens when that trouble economy beacons that money back?? What happens when the merger mania comes to an end when the cost is too high? As to the MM and 401K, that is the problem. I certainly don't feel comfortable with my money exposed to wild speculation. Look at the Iomega's, Netscape, Prestek of just a couple of years ago, that is where LU is right now, IMO. Your only point that I agree with is the notion of money chasing securities, but it is without rhyme or reason. Got to own , so I can get 30% or higher returns per annum is a fools game; especially when traditional long term returns are more in the 10-15% range. You are now broaching a 4th year of +30% gains. Ditto on tightening up the stops or just getting out of the nosebleeders for now.