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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WBendus who wrote (6765)	4/4/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: SCourt	Respond to of 19080

Let's talk about numbers - Let's say that Oracle misses the Zacks 0.39 EPS and hits the low side at 0.33 EPS. Even if the P/E dropped to 30, wouldn't that give us a stock price of (30 and 35 P/E): 30 * (0.76 + 0.33) = 32.7 35 * (0.76 + 0.33) = 38.15 Granted, with that low of a number, then the P/E may drop to 26 (again) and then we'd have 28.34 after the major selling and the buyers coming back in. Still, when Oracle talks about cutting into EPS, they may be saying that "don't expect a 0.03 surprise to the upside like last time." and not "we're going to miss projections by more than the lower part of the projection." Yes, I saw that the low projection was 0.31 but I'm giving them more credit than that. So, even if they reported 0.37, I would not expect that to have major downside impact on the stock...say, a drop to the low 20's. I'm not making projections, just curious as to what all of you think about impact on expectations and what to look for going forward the next few weeks aside from earnings warnings which would be major bad stock price karma, especially this time around. SCourt