To: mike jolley who wrote (27230 ) 4/5/1998 1:46:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Respond to of 132070
MJ, I like the SOES traders as mavericks who push the system to be more efficient. However, I do not see them as Robin Hoods. They are out for the buck like everyone else. Most Soes traders are high tech and quick on their feet. Smart, but more clever than smart. Sadly, I do think that the majority will go belly up in the course of a year, falling victim to insider trades and unexpected news (all news is unexpected or it wouldn't be news -g-), just as option market makers do. The article in Forbes about 15 year old traders made me laugh. These kids are being suckered in by the worst mindset trap in investing: taking lots of small profits while the inevitable losers are going to be killers. This strategey even hurts the extremely well-funded, but for individuals working on a small budget, it is deadly. Let me go through the scenario I see all the time: The trader grabs an eighth here, a quarter there. Lots of times. Being quick and nimble to get in between markets gives them confidence. But then, before they can set up an exit, something they are long comes out with disastrous news or something they are short announces it has been taken over. They lose 10-40 points in a second, wiping out their bank account. There is really no defense against this problem. If you make bets small enough, you can last longer, but you are eventually worn down. The problem is, taking huge risk for small profits, even when the odds of making a profit are very high, is a mug's game. But every generation has to learn that for themselves. I differentiate between the trader who is trading his own account and one who is operating in the behalf of clients. The latter is a good, steady, money-making business. The former is like gambling. In fact, it reminds me of playing roulette and covering every number but six and fourteen. Every time the wheel spins, you make a little money. But the one time 6 or 14 comes up, you lose everything. And the casinos don't put up that neon by being suckers for system players. Merrill Lynch doens't have all those offices because they let young brainiacs beat them trading, either. MB