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Technology Stocks : BORL: Time to BUY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TChai who wrote (9759)4/4/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: David Miller  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10836
 
>>All this company needs now is to make the 52-week high by breaking 12, this will bode well for sale and marketing. And they will be on their way to become an enterprise tool company which implied that the stock price will have to be in the 20's at the minimum.<<

Is your assumption here that Borland's stock price is used by their sales and marketing team to illustrate their progress towards becoming an enterprise tool company? I find this difficult to correlate with Del Yocam's concentration on long-term strategy, technology acquisition, financial conservatism etc. If stock price were that important, he would surely be using very different tactics indeed.

There are still a few small technology gaps in the Borland story, particularly in their capability to cope with back-end legacy transaction systems - CICS, IMS 'n stuff. Without this, they will tend to stay in the "new applications from scratch" arena, rather than follow the rest of the world into the "new applications that can easily and securely re-use legacy systems" space. This will not have escaped their notice, of course, so I would expect the (much-signalled) next acquisition to be in this area.

david



To: TChai who wrote (9759)4/5/1998 4:11:00 AM
From: Paul Corbett  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10836
 
All this company needs now is to make the 52-week high by breaking 12

You did not take into account share dilution. After a 10% dilution 52 week high market capitalisation basis would be reached at about $10.80. To be complete you would need to identify market cap of BORL and VSGN at the time of the announcement add them together, and come up with a "corrected 52 week high", which is probably less than 12.

I still think that the critical mass will be reached on a close above 10. If you look at the graph which you no doubt have you will see that BORL last closed above 10 on Dec 7. On each occasion it approached 10 thereafter it fell away very quickly implying that "sellers are over" in the high 9's.

A close above 10 would knock a lot of sellers out and would particularly hurt the shorts. Hence after closing above 10 it would quickly race to 12-13 level.The main negative here is the March qtr result. I am guessing that this result is predicted by the market. A worse result than expected would send the price back down, as happened after the qtr result after the merger with OPEN.

10 by April 30. Go BORL