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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (6176)	4/4/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

JTC and all: before I read your latest. My dear Friend GringoDoc sent me this for the folks at Rogers. Posted somewhere on the net: ÿÿÿ <<I know the market does not always move in rational directions, but company, after company, after company, keeps coming out with warnings, and instead of tanking, are going up!!>> ÿÿÿÿÿ You are seeing a rare phenomena: a wild, mad bull market. ÿÿÿÿÿÿ It may go on and tank on Monday, but the money poured in through every crack like a flood, like an endless sea of buffalo charging across vast stock plains,ÿ with the Exchange Floor Indians loosing arrows as fast as they can into the herd until their arms are tired. ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Overseas Oriental Order of Disaster Avoiders?ÿ Mentally Maimed Mutual Fund Money Managers?ÿ Clinton's Treasury Trojans?ÿ Rubin's Raiders? Greenspan's Galloping Grenadiers of Green Stuff?ÿÿ Printers on Overtime? Mexican Money Magnates?ÿ South American Cabal Caballeros?ÿ International "Investment" Cartels?ÿ Investment Banking Bulls....ers?ÿ Derivative Dudes? Excessively Exuberant Entrepreneurs?ÿ Starving Commodity Hogs?ÿ Pusillanimous Pork Belly Prodders?ÿ Gold Bugs?ÿ Silver Snakes?ÿ Palladium Plungers?ÿ Sneaky Stock Steerers? Takeover Tyrants?ÿ Yum-yum Yakuza?ÿÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Even (gasp!) the public millions? ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Very possibly all of the above--and some I forgot. ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Everyone's getting what they want, except Paula Jones, the North Koreans, the Japanese and Southeast Asians, the Republican Right, anyone in the oil business, the Unwholesome Homeless, and some bears with more brains than good sense (blush). ÿÿÿÿÿÿ I've never seen the like, not even in 1987---though I don't remember that too clear because I was broke at the time--and may be again if I don't get with the program.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿ It sure as hell ain't 1973 where the bookies put the "broke" back in "broker" and would have traded their second-hand VW's for an uptick. ÿÿÿÿÿÿ I will allow as how 1997 looked a little like this on the late October day after the markets' 500-point "crashette"ÿ (thank you for that one, Bsball).ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿ But that was different.ÿ Or was it?ÿ Or is it? ÿÿÿÿÿ Oh, how I could feel the frustration back in January when people ground their teeth waiting for a semi-trouble free moment to grab everything on the market with both hands. The money makers then very subtly turned on the money spigots, and the stock exchanges gladly dumped it into the troughs by the truckload. ÿÿÿÿÿ Oh, gawd, for more money to throw at this beast! ÿÿÿÿÿ A broken slot machine that pays off.ÿ A telephone booth pouring coins. A day when even turkeys fly. ÿÿÿÿÿ What can I say?ÿÿ ÿÿÿÿÿ Somewhere in this favored land, the sun is shining bright. ÿÿÿÿÿ Somewhere bands are playing, and somewhere hearts are light. ÿÿÿÿÿ Somewhere I hear traders laughing, and some will even shout, ÿÿÿÿÿ But there in the shadows, forgotton, ÿÿÿÿÿ Lies the one stock that struck out. ÿÿÿÿ ---WW

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (6176)	4/4/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

JTC another one from GringoDoc on the internet mania. Points to ponder: 1) The Internet names (save for AOL) which have small floats relative to total outstanding and large (relative) short positions. More money, less shares. AOL is the only one to split. All the others still have large positions either locked-up or just plain held inside. Remember when the AMZN shares were coming off lock-up last November, plenty of 144 filings, short interest almost equal to float? That was the last time the stock saw $50. Of all the tulips, Amazon.com should be the one, but.... Is it Jeff Bezos? What is holding it up? 2) Secondaries of inside shares in numerous names have occurred with regularity and nary a blip on the chart. Is that a sign, the "tell"? SEEK, USWB, BVSN have all done secondaries in the last 60 days and they are at all- time highs. 3) The recent IPO's (VRSN, DCLK, ONSL, RNWK, SPLN, EXDS, ISSX and so on) have been exceptionally strong after issue. 4) Mania within a mania? 5) The pimples are e-comm and e-comm wannabes - stock manipulation scandal at IBUY - retail problems with MALL, EGGS spurts but doesn't follow-thru. 6) No consolidations, yet. Alliances, yes - MCIC/YHOO, FON/ELNK, AOL/XCIT, RMII/PSIX, SPLN/CBS, MSFT, INTC and AOL becoming venture capital firms. 7) In the wings - watch for pending IPO's from Verio, CyberInvest, eBay, NetObjects, Juniper Communications, Vignette and Geo Cities - all backed by powerhouses. 8) Is this not relatively "new" money pouring into these names? And, if the market trend were to turn, would not these names be among the first to be let go? Sell YHOO before GE, sell MSPG before KO, sell ELNK before IBM, sell AMZN before MCD? 9) The higher, the faster - the lower the faster? Last-in, first-out? 10) "Pounding the table" (don't you get tired of that, Maria?) Pancho