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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ACAN who wrote (2599)	4/5/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

Dear Allan, thanx for Your nice comments. Always appreciated <G>. I used to enjoy ATI a great deal. Their products were nicely received by the market. But right now they got some sort of weakness: 3D-game performance. Open GL is note there either. If You held ATI.TO right now I would sell and take profits. Longterm however this is another game: You might know that ATI bought out the assets and the engineering talent from Tseng. This could become an Intel contender. I would do this: buy it 5 months after a major dip (> 20% due to Intel & STM competition). They might need 1 year to regain market leadership. I would also give SIII a close look. They now have Rambus technology and a Microsoft license. Could be a cheap value play for mid-.term (up to 1 year). Last but not least my favourite in this area: nVidia (not publicly traded yet) AND STM (SGS-Thomson). Their new RIVA product is about to dethrone the Vodoo2 at a FRACTON of its cost. Could be a good fundamental pick. Another company not to forget. Do You rember ARKLogic ? Tiny US company comprised of 10 engineers, There was a time (3 years back) any Taiwan value (good performance yet cheap) had that grafix chipset (ARK2000PV) inside. Good quality and ultra-cheap. They were boughrt out by a US-Technology-firm sort of an umbrella. Their new design should do it again. Ultra cheap and decent performance, should resemble the Intel i740 at a fraction of cost. Will find out about the company. Really like this kind of facts. Elevated and a sell on value for me is TDFX (3dFX). Their vodoo are current top-rank 3D hardware for gamers But their huge price tag will give the Riva (STM & nvidia) a true advantage. Riva uses SGRAM istead of TDFX EDO (design flaw IMHO). A speculative buy instead night be TDDDF. They are going to come to terms with the "real" world instead of the "workstation" world they seem to live in right now. A new chipset grafix solution is due out shortly that should be able to compete with those RIVA offerings and at the same time have excellent OpenGL performance, which would give it a unique appeal to home & corporate power users. Last but not least my tip what to avoid: TRID (Trident). Their design is the worst You can get. The stock is also. Something else: best Intel clone maker is going to be NSM (Cyrix I mean). Their new design should give AMD-K6(3d) the blind eye in business power value setups. My sources say that their 283/300Mhz chip could rule the corporate desktop in the Segment 1 (instead of Pentium MMX). The following design should do away with the poor FPU performance (due Summer/fall). NSM got hit last months but I think fundamentally there's a story going to unfold. AMD could also be a nice play AFTER (!!!) they announced the current disastrous quarter. I expect the price to retreat to $20-22 when they announce. Then the stock should be depressed for 2-3 weeks. I mean that's a good time to pick this beast up. Regarding networking, You should give 3Com a look at the current trading range. They have an EDGE over many others out there in the upcoming de facto enterprise backbone standard: GIGABIT ETHERNET. That's what counts for the longer term not the "current quarter mentality". If You are lucky enough to buy it in a market trough This could be a 50-80% gainer midterm. For risky players, the DD industry should get back into the limelight. I could think of WDC taking a nice chop of the IDE-ATA market share (could jump from 18 to over 20, perhaps 25%). This is somehow associated with Micropolis, the now defunct Singapore drivemaker. I was told that WDC was able to use many of Micropolis sales channels wherer they did not yet have a foothold into. IMHO this is the DD stock with the best valuation right now. (PSR ratio wise). On my TA traits, currently my machine is out of work in this regard but I'm hoping to clear it up this week fully. If You like candlesticks may I suggest: 1) the book: Steve Nison: Japanese candlestick charting techniqes he even got a follow up model on this one 2) a charting software: a good one is OMGA (Omega Research) Supercharts (version 4.x due out soon). Costs like $200-300. (they also make the tradestation pro software for wallstreet pros)* There's a cheap quote feed available from DialData (Internet option, stg. like $20 per month). You can also get the updated quotes (till current quarter) as a continous update plan on CD (called "quote club" by Omega). You can get a very powerful addon model for all Omega Products (Supercharts & Tradestation) called "candlestick forecaster for Supercharts", a $200 program. This frees You from many problems of identifying those patterns. (www.iptc.com) Another chart software I can recommend is Metastock by Equis but the candle forecaster addon is not available from there. 3) there's also a good bottoming/topping indicator from Tom de Mark called "sequential". There are some custom formulas friends of mine derived to identify those situations in Supercharts script language.. Last but not least, while I really do enjoy TA, I don't think it rules the world. If I have some background info on any segment I would be able to make better investment decisions. Fundamental info never hurts, to the contrary it pays off. And market usances (the caveats out there) are most important of all: for instance I would avoid ANY company's stock that issued a floorless debenture / preferred. I got burned once (EXSO) - cost me 30% of one position. I wasn't burned another time (CTYS) - the word "floorless" rang my alarm bell. <G> best wishes CROSSY