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Strategies & Market Trends : Oracle - look out below!!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ralphie who wrote (38)	4/5/1998 10:48:00 AM
From: Bipin Prasad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49

Ralphie , It's great to know that you're having fun! Rev from NC is old news. It's a big mistake to hold on to puts based on rev from NC. Anybody who is beating on this issue is nonsense, imo. It's a great academic topic to discuss, but no substance to investment because it never fetched up meaningful $$$ in the past. Most of all, it's way too early to decide who's winning in this war btn Java vs pc. Trust me, this is not black and white issue. Pure java & PC, both will be with us for decades until we come out with totally different animals. Revolution in tech has just started, give them time to grow. It won't be either this one or the other situation. Finacially last thu. meeeting has some bearings because traditionally 4th qr is the strongest one. So there was a dampenning effect a little bit for short term. But you and I are looking beyond that. Jun, July and Aug will affect our sep 18th options. This is from wsj on Apr 3: The company's fiscal fourth quarter ends in May. Oracle last year began reorganizing its sales force to simplify its structure and to create product specialists. The revamp has disrupted the company's interactions with customers and contributed to weak sales in the fiscal second quarter but analysts have kept their earnings estimates for the fourth quarter largely untouched. This is the key for us. There'll be minor up/down swings for it was overbought based on expectations for the strongest qr. But Larry is in charge now. We all know he's taking this down turn as personal insult. 8^) Him and his ego! What an ego maniac! But that's part of our business nature. I love it. You'll have at least two great chances to unload your puts: Just before Jun earnings report and end of July during tech dips. I'm saving some 2nd half 98 puts to sell during that time for more premium.) IMO, I have greater chances with my naked puts: Time is on my side. (In general, companies try hard to improve their business. ) Larry's huge ego is on my side. From end of Aug, tech rally'll kick in till Sep 18th. Most of all, ORCL takes care of share holders unlike lots of other tech companies. So I prefer to sell ORCL puts. As long as both of us are nimble, we'll do fine, imo. Best luck with your puts! ps: 1. Lu is ripe to short. What's your take? 2. ATML is getting ready to jump. Earnings are coming out on Th. So there'll be some short term up swing. Semi commodity will do well for the second half of 98. (Buy semi commodity stocks when pe is the highest and dump it when pe is the lowest.) take care, BPP(Bipin's partner)