Highlights from the Peabody Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool Pfizer Board.
Peabody Model Trend Prediction: PFE is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak.
Future News That Could Effect PFE:
-Viagra News
-Viagra New Rxs
-Approval of Viagra in Europe
-Big Pharma merger discussions
-Valuation/ PE concerns
-Big Pharma momentum
-General market corrections
Peabody Portfolio: +138.5% (Record)
Countdown: S-Day (Split Qualifying Day): -23 Days
Highlights: -New Pending Peabody Peak of 101.88 reached on 4/03/98
-3.0 billion PFE common stock shares have been authorized (over twice the amount issued).
-Monthly and quarterly PFE history updated through March
-New V Files
-Target Peabody Peak: 103.71 (4/10/98)
-New Target Peabody Valley: 90.18 (5/13/98)
The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board.
Invest only after conducting your own research.
Have PFun!!!!
BigKNY3
______________________________________________________The Peabody Report: 4/05/98
Peabody Model Trend Prediction
Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction:
PFE is still headed higher to a new Peabody Peak.
The Peabody Model PForecasts PFE will move higher to a new Peabody Peak of 103.71 by April 10, 1998. The current target Peabody Valley has been revised upward to 90.18 by May 13,1998.
Commentary
On March 8, 1998 ( PFE @86 1/4), this potentially classic The Peabody Report reversed its trend prediction and pforecasted a new Peabody Peak. Since that date, PFE has increased 21.1%. Not too shabby for a one month period.
As noted in previous Peabody Reports, major breaking market and Big Pharma news could impact PFE including; Viagra in the media, market corrections, instability in Asia, and Big Pharma partnerships and merger mania.
Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy.
Peabody Short-term PForecasts
Peabody Short-Term PForecast (3/29/98): PFE: 95.75, DJ: 8,796: Viagra has received the most extensive new product coverage in the history of the pharmaceutical industry...And the PFE marketing muscle was just released on Friday! At these levels, the PFE action will be fast and furious....Expect huge volume, profit-taking, discussions about a 2-1 split (the equivalent of receiving two $5 bills for a $10), concerns about PE levels, and ...a new Peabody Peak. Gut feel: a big battle @ $100.
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Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: A new Peabody Peak, a battle @100 and ...a big Thumbs Up (3 in a row!)
Peabody PForecast Record (55 weeks): 35-20 (64%)
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Peabody Short-Term PForecast (4/05/98): PFE: 101.88, DJ: 8,983: Momentum players and long-term investors are now supporting PFE. As noted last week, in the history of the pharmaceutical industry, no product has ever received as much media attention. Is it media hype or reality? Within three months, everyone will find out as the first RXs roll out of pharmacies.
One other factor to watch is the general market. PFE and Dow are strongly correlated (+.55). If the market heads south, PFE profit-taking will definitely happen.
Peabody Gut-Feel: The Dow will break and hold 9,000 and PFE will surpass the target Peabody Peak of 103.71. Expect modest profit-taking until at least mid-April (1sr quarter earnings report).
Peabody Portfolio (+138.5%) PFE @ 101.88
With the record weekly close @101.88, The Peabody Portfolio has more than doubled. Current open market order is for 200 shares @ 90.25.
The mythical Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 13 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 . A total of 200 shares (100 shares pre-split) were purchased at each recommendation.
To date, the Portfolio has purchased 2,600 PFE shares at an average price of $42.72 (only 4.1% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys).
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# PFE Shares Purchased: 2,600
Average Price of Purchases: $42.72
Current Total Value: $264,875
Total Costs: $111,063
Total Profit: +$153,813
% Return: +138.5%
% Annualized Return: +115.7%
A history of the 13 PFE purchases and background on Mr. Peabody can be found on the 9/06/97 Peabody Report located on the Pfizer Board.
Future Actions That Will Effect PFE
ED news in the media : Throughout 1998
Asia , Iraq and Clinton news: Throughout 1998
News of Trovan's acceptance: Second quarter, 1998
European review of Viagra: Second quarter, 1998
Launch of Viagra: April, 1998
Viagra Rx Trends: April, 1998
First Quarter Earnings : April 15, 1998
PFE Annual Meeting: April 23, 1998
Possible split announcement: April 23, 1998
AUA Meeting-presentation of Viagra data: May 30-June 4,1998
FDA review of Zeldox : First half, 1998
Launch of Zeldox 1998
Peabody V-Files
Analysts' Estimates of Viagra Sales
........................................ 1998
................................... (Millions).........Comments
Standard & Poor's......... $400............$3.0 billion by 2002
Bear Stearns.................$400...$1.0Billion (1999), peak sales $2.0B
PFEr Challenge.............$389..............$1.3 billion in 1999
Merrill Lynch..................$350..............$730 million (1999, $1.02 billion (2000)
Haggar.........................$300..........................................
Gerard Klauer..............$300...........$782 million in 1999
AG Edwards...............$225......Reaching $1.0 billion in 3-4 years
NationalBanks....................... Up to $6 billion in peak year
OrbiMed ..................................$1 billion by 2002
Average $338
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Peabody S-Day Countdown
PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE will announce a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998.
As of December 31, 1997, 3.0 billion common stock shares have been authorized and 1.371 billion shares have been issued.
Here is an analysis of a possible PFE split in 1998.
Start of PFE 80s Streak: 1/28/98
# Days PFE has traded in the 80s: 67
# Days Remaining to Reach 90: 23
Forecasted Split Announcement 4/23/98 At the PFE Annual Meeting
Probability of a 2-1 split in April: 90%
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