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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (13169)	4/5/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

You promised not to tell anyone I was paying you off to bookmark me! Anyway, the scary thing is the Japanese monies. Short-term, a dive in the Nikkei or a changeover in the way the Japan market works should send monies to NY and create an even more bullish environ. This is where the tricky part sets in. Irrational exuberance (for a short time) or fade away. A Nikkei collapse (below 14,000) or a movement to the Bond Market by Asian funds would certainly be very strong support for NY. However, the interconnectivity, as it is, in the world today would eventually create problems for companies at home as well as abroad. It's my opinion, and I don't take responsibility for it.....I follow Gene Inger's commentaries alot and he has me convinced.....It's my opinion that the only real financial market player in the world for the next 10 years is New York. Of course, Chicago as well. Because there is a fundamental breakdown in the international system. But NY is going to have to go through some stress near-term because of the probable swings that shall occur as a result of Asian unrest. Of course this is a macro view and one can only trade it day to day. Personally, I don't care if I make my money long or short. I just think the proper hedge at this point is to be on the alert for a sudden reversal. Certainly, more money can be made more quickly down than up. This week should be interesting, as the conventional bull wisdom has "holiday" weeks as being very bullish. I do not look at it that way, I think of them as being very "thin" weeks, with the potential for wacky swings being very high. About 2 weeks ago, the E-Wavers and the like were calling for mid-April to be a top. You know I can't call out that far. The only thing that troubles me about this is that everyone seems to pick the same time. So, based just on one thing. I look at Greenspan's switch to being bullish as a watershed. Using the most obscure technique of market psychology, typically these ridiculous observations by obvious Market Mammoths result in a reversal in 3 days. So if I was in Vegas and had an extra thousand I did not need; A good bet for the short side would either be late Tuesday or early Wednesday....probably Wednesday. Just for a quick hit, based only on the "Everything is Rosy" scenario. You know damn well I'll probably bet this way, but I do not recommend anyone else does. It's a very high risk bet....but those are the ones that often have nice payouts.