To: Judy who wrote (7146 ) 4/6/1998 11:36:00 PM From: Pullin-GS Read Replies (2) | Respond to
I've been following INTC for a spell now...waiting for an opportunity to buy....but every day is presenting a new "opportunity" as the stock goes lower. I was prepared to buy in at low 74 support, but given how it was cut down in a matter of an hour of trading I held back. It looks like I may have to wait some more:INTC is trading below the 21, 50, and the 200EMA . The short-term trend is down. What little support INTC had at 74 was lost today, with a close at the day's low. Today's losses occurred on a day whose volume was a hair higher than the 21Day-Volume-EMA (avg is 16.2MM). It looks like a gap down in the AM based on the day's trading activity alone. Intel had a weak attempt at closing the pre-warning gap and failed. The trend is down, and I see no reason to think it will correct in the next few trading days. Bollinger Band envelope. The price trend fell from about 80 to today's close of 73 7/8 (8% in 6 trading days). Bollinger has support pegged at 66.5, which is consistent with a trading range INTC has seen in the not-to-distant past in mid-December. I have figured that there is 306MM shares of downside-overhead that INTC will need to take out in order for it to see 67 again. This will take a number of days...but the trend has been established, and ASIA flu is just starting to go around again in the tech sector.MACD Histogram has trended down off a peek of .345 4 days ago and is just hovering above zero at .075. If tomorrow brings more selling, as I expect it will, MACD will cross over zero on the down side, signaling sell/short on many terminals. This is bearish.RSI is trending down strongly and closed today at 37. Selling tomorrow will bring it below 30, signaling sell/short on many terminals (30/70 crossover alert). This is very bearish.Bostian's Accumulation/Distribution had a bearish crossover 2 days ago, with a bearish trend confirmation the following day. In the last 6 months this has only happened twice...each time resulting in an immediate (within several days) trend reversal. The last time INTC saw this it was trading at 91 1/2 on March 2nd. The Directional System is currently trending on the short side, with -DI above +DI. ADX is trending slightly down and is not below both -DI/+DI. This signals that the current trend is still going and not to expect a reversal in the shorterm.Doji-Star on the Candle-stick chart warned of an impending trend reversal from the short-term lateral trend to a down trend. This was confirmed in a strong way by a Long-Black-Body today, that closed almost 3 points off from the Doji. The fact that the stock opened near it's high and closed at it's low only magnifies this candle. This combination of bearish indicators has the Eastern chartists calling their brokers as we speak. Very bearish.
