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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (15550)	4/5/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 94695

Hi Donald, My scenario would allow for a sharp, say 200 dow pt. wave 1 drop drop from Monday's high into late tuesday, then a rally that recovers these 200 points in a wave 2 rally that runs into wednesday, forming a double top, before an extremely severe wave 3 decline begins and runs into early the next week. But I would be somewhat surprised if this happened (which wouldn't be the first time :o)..) and I would not attempt to trade the wave 2 rally if it came this quickly into the decline. The diamond reversal pattern generally doesn't lead to a double top, but on the contrary, a spike into the targeted reversal zone, then prices that break away in a strong trend that resembles a steeple top. Wax your skis, downhillers!! :o) So, in summary, only if a double top occurred with the second top forming on Wednesday could i agree with your scenario of the sharp decline begining in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. But I would give this scenario a 25 to 30 % chance of happening. Thanks for the valuable insight, and glad to see your indicators calling for a s-t top in this time frame too!! Best of Trading, David