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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (6235)	4/5/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<the market favors stocks with no earnings> ...exactly, these are the least likely to disappoint. I wonder what will happen to Yahoo! on Wednesday, if a nickle is expected, and they earn a dime, will it be reported everywhere that they beat earnings by 100%, that always cracks me up, large percentages on a few pennies difference, they are a long way from earning a dollar and even then 100 times earnings seems awfully rich. However, apparently these whacked out internet stocks trade on price to sales, and I saw somewhere that 20 times sales is cheap, 30 rich. I think it was sales they used to talk about valuation in these. Screwy. The only thing that will bring this market down is a trigger which could convince people to stop throwing money at it. After that last jobs report, I don't think inflation hedges like commodities will draw folks away. With SE Asia still shaky I don't think that will pull any money away. People certainly are not going to start putting their 401k's into treasuries (well, except for me, but I couldn't sleep at night, knowing that if I wanted to change my 401k asset allocation it will take six weeks...) anyway, for most people rates are just too low, they haven't figured risk into the equation at all. I have to say, there just isn't any bad news out there for the US markets, and over-valuation isn't considered to be a negative. Apparently there was a lot of put buying last week, I know high short interest is supposed to be bullish. Why even things around the White House have calmed down. Most of us have probably seen the prediction on the BK thread here calling for big declines, CatLady already linked to it earlier, but here it is again if you have not read it. Message 3965351 But... I wonder if we will see the indexes hold up well, and instead, we will see a series of individual calamities. Maybe the first one will be Yahoo: "Yahoo reports earnings of 2.5 cents 50% under expectations" he he