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To: Thean who wrote (18129)4/6/1998 2:31:00 AM
From: waverider  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
>>When the cycle turns, one has to get out at whatever losses or else the losses can multiply! I learned my lesson there. Sold SEG at $40. Sold QNTM at ~$30. Sold WDC at $25. Sold RDRT at $20. All except SEG were big time losers for me. If I were to hold on, I would have doubled my losses.<<

Yes, you are right. I held CDG from $80+ all the way down. I did the same thing with Lam Research (semiconductor equipment). I guess the secret is to know when the party is over because no one rings a bell. The reason for the fall comes long afterward with everyone who owns the stock screaming about the fundamentals...then the fundamentals go to hell. The CDG situation was tough for me because I could not imagine that first of all the price of oil would drop so low, and secondly that Cliff's would be impacted by the drop. Cliff's was impacted by the drop, but not fundamentally (as far as we know); it was effected my market psychology.

Since this sector is cyclical, one has to treat it gently. That said, it is probably save to say a long term investor is going to come out of it all quite well.

Speaking of Cliff's, I did sell half my position at the $35 break in order to open new positions in NE and GLM. I had averaged down so much with CDG, that my portfolio had way too much. At least for now, that move has turned out pretty well.

Good Luck Tomorrow