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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dom B. who wrote (9335)	4/6/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: rhet0ric	Respond to of 13594

Turns out I'm only authorized for covered calls on ETrade, not all options, so I'd have to close out a long position before I could short AOL. http://www.beartracker.com/shortsell2.html* Intresting link, thanks. It put words to some things I'd been thinking about, especially waiting for a "triggering event" and understanding the "story" that people going long believe in. (Thinking out loud here...) I guess I see two stories, one short-term and one long-term. Short-term, people are worried about Asia, and they see Internet stocks as a good place to put their money, since most have little or no Asian exposure. Long-term, people believe in the future of the Internet, and they see AOL as a premier Internet brand-name, with great market share, etc. So the triggering events needed to undo those two stories are signs of strength in Asia, and either a drop in market share (or revenue), or a growing realization that AOL isn't in fact an Internet stock. With people talking about a potential collapse of the Japanese economy, I don't see fears subsiding about Asia any time soon. Nor do I think people will see through AOL's marketing in the next while and come to the realization that AOL is a kludge. So the only events in the near future that could derail this stock is a bad EPS surprise, or a subscribers backlash after the $2 rise. The former could come in late April when earnings are announced. The latter may not be made public for months. Thanks again for the links. rhet0ric