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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Nelson who wrote (230)	4/6/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: Don Westermeyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

William, Day rates would have to drop more than 25% before TMAR would actually lose money. I don't _think_ that is likely to happen! There is no evidence of a drop in day rates yet this year. It warrants keeping a close eye on this area though. There is some concern that additional boats coming on line later this year _may_ put some slight pressure on rates. Or think of this: why are people selling boats to them? If I owned a bunch of boats, and rates were going through the roof, I think I would hesitate to sell...and if I sold, you can bet it wouldn't be cheap. Well, if they did over-pay for the boats then TMAR is in trouble. I'll admit that I am too ignorant in this area, but with recent insider buying near $20 I feel the insiders are comfortable with recent stock price.

To: William Nelson who wrote (230)	4/6/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Jack Be Quick	Respond to of 1153

William, re:>>Or think of this: why are people selling boats to them?<< My impression is that fleet additions have for the most part come from acquiring smaller companies in the industry, i.e. consolidation to achieve economies of scale and concentration of market share. The previous owners probably sell because they are offered a premium to sell, and because they face increasing competition from larger, stronger competitors if they remain in the market. [Contrary to popular belief, not every weekend boater can participate in this market: it is capital intensive, involves long-term commitments and relationships with customers, requires specialized vessels, maintenance facilities, experienced crew, etc.] On the other hand, I do not see any of the diversified oilfield service companies looking to divest their marine transport operations. In fact, several of the offshore drilling companies, such as RDC, have announced that they are buying newbuild vessels in order to build a marine support capability of their own. Why do the drillers want to buy them new and own them outright if (1) current boat owners want to give them away, and/or (2) they are going to be so cheap to rent from TMAR, HMAR, TDW, etc.? John