To: DRRISK who wrote (10763 ) 4/6/1998 7:30:00 PM From: mr.mark Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13925
i don't think this has been posted here... from april 1st, 1998 ELECTRONICS Good stock picks still to be found Sector's mixed results in 1997 likely to persist this year By Jennifer Lien [SINGAPORE] T he electronics outlook this year may be gloomy but the sector still offers good stock picks with strong earnings prospects. ÿ <Picture: File photo>ÿ Money-maker: NatSteel Electronics more than doubled profit last year ------------------------------------------------------------------------ This was the consensus of electronics analysts polled by BT at the end of the annual results announcement exercise for listed companies. "People should still look at electronics because in the context of the Singapore market, this is still one sector that will offer you earnings growth," said Merrill Lynch analyst Bernard Tan. "Mixed" was the main verdict on the sector's results in 1997, with the stronger performances underpinned by foreign exchange gains. "Underlying operational performance has generally not been as good as the actual numbers, which have been boosted by the strong US dollar," said Pearly Yap, research manager at Soc-Gen Crosby Securities. Of the 29 SES Electronics Index counters, 12 posted higher net profit, 11 posted net profit drops, two returned to profitability, one posted smaller losses, and one sank into the red. This leaves suspended CAM International, which announced its 1996 results in February, and Vikay Industrial, which is under judicial management. Of the 20-odd non-index stocks, winners included NatSteel Electronics, whose net profit more than doubled, and Magnecomp, which posted a six-fold rise. Disappointments were led by Goldtron, whose net profit fell 68 per cent; Armstrong Industrial, down 63 per cent; and Uraco Holdings, down 38 per cent. This mixed bag is likely to persist this year, with a patchy demand scenario offset by first-half currency gains, analysts say. More optimistic analysts see a second-half pick-up in the disk drive and PC markets, underpinned by strong economic growth in the US and Europe. "Volumes are still looking fairly good for the next five to six months, so companies will escape too much margin pressure," said Dresdner Kleinwort Benson analyst Janardan Menon. But other analysts say the disk drive industry will only turn around in 1999. Semiconductors also remain weak, while global PC demand is slowing. "I think global end demand for most products will surprise on the downside in 1998," said Merrill Lynch's Mr Tan. "Companies are underestimating Asia's problems. The US and Europe demand figures look OK, but not phenomenal." This means stiffer price competition for companies fighting to keep their business and market share. Analysts advise investors to stay away from companies with Asian exposure, highly-geared companies, companies selling commodity items such as PCs, and companies without much technology advantage, such as plastic injection moulding firms. Companies in the semiconductor and disk drive arenas need to be evaluated individually as the current slowdown has boosted the fortunes of some and dragged down others, they add. "We are asking people to be very, very defensive and stock-specific," said Merrill Lynch's Mr Tan. According to him, investors should pay attention to contract manufacturers, such as NatSteel Electronics and NatSteel Broadway; companies with specific niches, including Creative Technology and Gul Technologies; well-managed companies benefiting from the sub-US$1,000 (S$1,600) PC trend, such as MMI Holdings; and "special turnaround situations", such as Datapulse. Analyst John Chan of GK Goh also likes Magnecomp, due to its growing share in the disk drive market; Electronic Resources for its recent tie-up with leading US distributor Ingram Micro; Lung Kee Metal and Flextech.