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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bryce Elkins who wrote (18702)	4/6/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

> I got lucky and picked up some more LGND at $15.50 Why do you consider that lucky?

To: Bryce Elkins who wrote (18702)	4/6/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: shasta23	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

You could've picked it up at 15 1/4 and felt even more lucky! Again this stock needs a news release to stop the technical breakdown. Every time we were getting close to breaking down a nice report came out which held up the price. Will it happen again? BTW the chart looks now just like the beginning of October when the ride to 11 began. THe difference this time is that the stocks wasn't even able to push to a new high after the little rest from 03/19-03/27. Another sign of weakness it that there are hardly any days out of the last 20 where the stock could close up from the opening(it's like 4 out of 18 days). So if there is a news release tonite after the conference(or was that tomorrow?) and the stock pops tomorrow than you might call yourself lucky otherwise you might be able to pick up more stock even lower. Stefan

To: Bryce Elkins who wrote (18702)	4/6/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Ble, I agree that the price will pop up soon. A representative from ZEN was just on CNBC to talk about Tamoxifen. The interview went about as I expected. Numbers were not available, but it sounded like they were as expected (on the plus and minus side). Thus there was no need to continue, because the risk/reward ratio was fairly well defined. The issue of blood clots was side-stepped and I'm not sure how serious the clots are, but they were fairly frequent. I think the numbers was about 1 in 100 so the number of patients developing blood clots would be higher than the number that did not get breast cancer. Moreover, a significant number would develop endometrial cancer. So there is a clear trade off. For every patient that doesn't get breast cancer, there are about two patients that develop endometrial cancer or blood clots from the "treatment". There is clearly room for improvement and the drug is clearly not appropriate for most women (those who enrolled were high risk - the general population would have a much poorer risk/reward ratio).

To: Bryce Elkins who wrote (18702)	4/6/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

So far today's action has been heavily retail. The bid has hit 15 1/4, but volume is under 150K on about 230 trades. The size of the average trade is just over 600 shares which is very small. Maybe some did view the Tamoxifen data as a negative, but I think that the MMs are clearing out some of the weak hands. I did notice that today's IBD showed an accumulation distribution rating of "A", so it's probably time for some to take profits.

To: Bryce Elkins who wrote (18702)	4/6/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

BLe, LGND's closing ask price was 15 7/16, which is close to the price you paid. I think it very briefly hit 15 5/16, but even when the bid fell to 15 1/8, the ask was usually at 15 3/8. The trading was heavily on the retail side, and I did get a chance to review the Inquirer story on Tamoxifen. It looks like about twice as many women develop blood clots on their lungs as the number that don't develop breast cancer and about 1/2 that number get endometrial cancer. Other's also develop uterine bleeding, so it's clear that there is considerable risk associated with the treatment. I'm not sure about the bleeding, but Targretin does help the endometrial problem in animal models. Joe Kernan just indicated that ZEN was up 10 today and even LLY got a boost because Evista works the same way as Tamoxifen (as does Droloxifene, CP-366,156, and TSE424, all of which involve LGND).

To: Bryce Elkins who wrote (18702)	4/6/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Looks like LGND's market continues to "grow": Monday April 6 1:36 PM EDT Poll Finds Highest Ever US Obesity Rate NEW YORK (Reuters) -- More Americans are overweight than ever before, according to a Harris poll conducted last month. The nationwide survey, conducted via telephone March 11-16,1998, surveyed 1,005 American adults about factors known to have a major impact on health, such as weight, smoking, and seat belt use. The pollsters found that 76% of adults over age 25 were heavier than recommended for their height and body frame. This figure has been growing over the years -- in 1995, a poll found that 71% of adult Americans were overweight, up from 64% in 1990, and 58% in 1983. Defining obesity as weighing 20% or more over recommended weight, the survey results indicate that 28% of Americans are obese. "The proportion of adults who are over the recommended weight, for their height and body frame, has risen to its highest point ever," commented Humphrey Taylor, chairman of Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., in a statement. "Americans, who are surely the most overweight people on Earth, continue to add yet more pounds." In addition to their findings on weight, the authors of the poll report that despite recent state-by-state legislation restricting tobacco use and government action against the tobacco companies, the number of adult smokers in America has remained relatively unchanged (26%) during the past decade. And the number of adult smokers "is actually 29%," if you add cigar and pipe smokers to the group. One bright note: the poll indicates that since 1983, seat beat usage has risen by 58%. "Fully 77% of adults claim to wear seat belts when then are in the front seat of a car," according to the Harris statement. The pollsters also found a correlation between smoking, obesity, seat belt habits, and education. Respondents with post-graduate degrees were less likely to smoke or to be overweight and more likely to use seat belts than those who had not completed high school. "While the continuing increase in seat belt usage is encouraging, the remarkable increase in those overweight or obese, and the stubborn persistence of the smoking habit are very bed news for the health of Americans in the next century," said Taylor.